pattern change

Weather Pattern Change Latest Outlook

Weather Pattern Change Latest Outlook

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Weather Pattern Change Latest Outlook

We have been talking about a gradual pattern change taking place beginning around the middle of the month of November. REMEMBER THAT PATTERN CHANGE IS A PROCESS AND NOT AN EVENT. Based on model runs over the last week or so I continue to believe that this is going to be the case. Also remember that THE PATTERN CHANGE YOU GET MAY NOT NECESSARILY BE THE PATTERN CHANGE you are looking for.

One of the things we are seeing is encouraging from the standpoint of the drought. It appears that we may be transitioning to a pattern that favors more frequent precipitation events in the coming weeks. The European model and the Canadian model want to start it next week with the first of 2 systems moving toward the east coast. We outlined the first potential event on a JOESTRADAMUS post earlier today as we examine the bullish European Model and the Canadian model and the not so bullish GFS model. The midcycle GFS remains weak with a lead system for next Tuesday Wednesday.

WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE MORE ACTIVE PACIFIC JET BRINGING MORE STORMS INLAND

gfs216

However longer term it appears that the Pacific Jet is going to be very active sending weather systems moving across the US beginning next week. This is about an active a jet stream pattern that we have seen in a long long time. Even going back to last winter we saw system after system in the west deflected well west of our area leaving us with very little in terms of rain events let alone snow events. The cold air part of the equation through next week however remains elusive as Canada remains warm and cold air remains locked up over Siberia and Europe at least for now.

pattern change

You can see on the hemispheric view where all the cold air is at the moment. Much of the polar region remains warm with just pockets of below normal temperatures in scattered areas of North Central Canada. The pattern still needs to correct quite a bit in order for that cold air in Siberia to crack the wall over the polar regions and spread into North America. This may take some time. Cold weather and winter weather lovers need to remember that this is still November so to have a warm looking pattern now need not necessarily mean this will be the case as we head toward the end of November and the beginning of December.  Keys going forward will be how much if any blocking develops over the Atlantic. Signals here are mixed at the moment. The upper air structure across the Northern Pacific continues to be in transition to something less hostile to colder air coming into North America. Obviously the atmosphere has a lot of work to do. We are evolving into something different but right now it is very hard to figure out what exactly that is going to be.

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