European Weather Model Bullish on Stormier Pattern
European Weather Model Bullish on Stormier Pattern
We continue to see models handling the weather for next week rather differently. All of this has to do with the fact that there are numerous waves of energy running around in the jet stream and each run reacts differently to each wave and how it changes. The European weather model however seems to have been the most consistent in how it is handling the changes across North America and continues to telegraph some sort of low development along the east coast for the middle of next week.
EUROPEAN WEATHER MODEL WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 16TH
EUROPEAN WEATHER MODEL THURSDAY NOVEMBER 17TH
The end result is a broad upper air cutoff low along the Delaware coast by next Thursday with a surface low somewhere to the east northeast. Obviously there is no real cold air around so this would be a rain event if the phasing idea is correct. The Canadian weather model is similar to the European although it is a day faster while the GFS remains completely unphased and weak.
CANADIAN WEATHER MODEL WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 16TH
GFS WEATHER MODEL WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 16TH
The Canadian surface map is below. The European is not that different except that it is 24 hours later for Wednesday morning at 7am instead of Tuesday night at 1am.
I don’t want to completely discount the GFS idea of nothing happening since we are still in this drought pattern but the fact that the other 2 models have been more consistent is encouraging. Also the GFS off hour runs seem to go back to a more phased look and we might see that happen late this afternoon when that run comes out. At least this would be a nice soaking rain for the area if it happens. Also the European model is bullish longer term with a more active pattern.
We will of course have to see what happens with the first one before we worry about the second one. Still it is nice to see the models showing more activity now as we get deeper into November.
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