Noreaster Moving Offshore
We can begin to see the development of low pressure in the Gulf states that will head toward the Carolinas today. We will see some sunshine this morning but that will give way to arriving clouds as moisture begins to move up from the south. No rain is forecast for the daytime today but rain will begin to develop in southern areas of New Jersey and Southeast Pennsylvania this evening and move northward. The Nam model tonight does show a fairly impressive area of rain with the noreaster moving offshore but with a weak low closer to the coast, probably in response to the dying primary low in Southeastern Canada.
Noreaster Moving Offshore
It should reach New York City and Northern New Jersey around midnight or a bit earlier and just after midnight on Long Island and for Connecticut. Temperatures today will warm into the 40s to around 50. There are no snow and ice issues to speak of out of this as the atmosphere is simply too warm and the dynamics just aren’t there. You can follow the rain development on the real time radar loops below.
The noreaster moving offshore will be far enough out so that there will be no serious coastal flooding issues from this. The fast movement doesn’t give any time for water to pile up in between tide cycles. The storm itself is no where near as deep as models indicated days ago. The rain should end from southwest to northeast beginning Saturday morning and should be done before noon in the New York City area and by early afternoon over Long Island and Coastal Connecticut. Rainfall amounts should be in the 1/2 inch to an inch range with lesser amounts west and north and the highest near coastal areas.
Temperatures Saturday should settle in the 40s. Colder air slowly moves in Saturday night and temperatures will be in an overall downtrend through Monday morning when the coldest Canadian air begins to arrive. By Monday morning lows should be down to the teens to near 20 in many locations.
The question of whether there is another opportunity for a few snow showers or a burst of snow will depend on the strong upper air system moving across the area Sunday night and Monday morning and there could very well be a burst of snow when this happens. I would also point out that in the past number of weeks there have been waves offshore that were shown to be offshore only to back westward at the last minute with a little bit of precipitation in some instances. Tonight’s GFS shows the storm indicated a few days ago much weaker but a little further west again. We will of course watch and see if this winds up backing further west and skimming the coast with a little bit of precipitation Sunday night. Its a longshot but not impossible.
With regards to the long range, the GFS does have a couple of systems for this week but we remain in prove it to me mode. Tonight’s run features a weak low moving out of the lower Ohio Valley and offshore with some light snows along about Wednesday night. Another clipper follows next Saturday. You would think one of those would do something but not the way this month has gone so far.
On the broad scale the blocking pattern is forecast to break down in another week or so and it looks like another pattern change of some sort may be underway but to what it goes to I’m not quite sure yet.
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