National Weather Service Snow Forecasts Thursday 02092017

The National Weather Service snow forecast maps for Thursday’s snow possibility is out and there is a general 4 to 6 inch snow forecast for the New York City Northern New Jersey Long Island Connecticut and the Hudson Valley.

NAM MODEL SNOW FORECAST FOR THURSDAY 02092017

This is the new NAM model forecast for Thursday’s snow. While I think the amounts are overstated it does shift the axis of the heaviest snow just inland of the coast. If you cut this in half then you come up with my forecast from earlier. The NAM is very consistent with a low moving across Southern Delmarva and heading just east of Atlantic City by Thursday morning.

NAM MODEL SURFACE FORECAST THURSDAY MORNING 7AM 02092017

The NAM GFS and European models all have a nicely developed wave though the European is further southeast with its feature for the same timeframe. Given that of all the models the NAM has performed the best this winter so far, Im going to lean somewhat in its direction for the moment. How intense a wave and how close to the coast will be the most important keys here. What the NAM implies is that as the wave intensifies, cold air will overtake the surface and we will see temperatures fall into the 20s. If this plays out according to the NAM by Friday morning we could be down in the low to mid teens. Friday’s highs will probably not be out of the mid to upper 20s. One of the other tough parts of this forecast is the southern end of the heavier snow and right now I think RT 195 in New Jersey is probably the southern extent of the heaviest snow.

My forecast map is below and the National Weather Service snow maps from this evening are right underneath.

The maps below are the National Weather Service forecast snow maps with the most likely snowfall prediction.

National Weather Service Snow Forecasts Thursday 02092017