nate rain

Nate Rain Monday Warm Humid Weekend

Nate Rain Monday Warm Humid Weekend

REMEMBER WHEN WINTER COMES MOISTURIZE!

 

Nate Rain Monday Warm Humid Weekend

We are headed into a warm and humid weekend as we wait and see what Tropical Storm Nate does as it moves northward into the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Warnings are up for the Central Gulf Coast and once inland later Saturday night, the rain from Nate will move northeastward and will head our way for later Sunday night and Monday. Right now it is hard to say who gets what regarding rain. Nate’s track west of the Appalachians initially will limit rain along coastal areas while areas well inland across Pennsylvania and upstate NY will probably see more. Also is the fact that the remnant low will be gradually weakening as it moves east. The GFS has been the more aggressive of the models with rainfall amounts in the 2 inch plus range but right now we are going to be a bit skeptical if only because it is so dry and the track west of the mountains severely limits moisture.

nate rain

Im using the Canadian’s view of rainfall amounts as probably the best representation of what we wind up with here. You can see where the heavier rain sets up north and west of the coast. If Nate winds up tracking further east then we can slide the heavy rain area eastward as well.

SATELLITE LOOP

storm free

The satellite loop this afternoon shows clouds to the north with some showers moving across Central New England. Some showers on the radar in Western Pennsylvania will weaken as they move to the east.

REGIONAL RADAR

storm free

LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY

storm free

LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
storm free

There could be some patchy fog developing tonight as we are in a humid and rather stagnant air mass. We should see partly sunny skies on Saturday with highs into the 80s in many locations. Even coastal areas should at least see temperatures in the 70s.

nate rain

Sunday will be warm too though it could be a shade lower due to a few more clouds coming into the mix especially in the afternoon. I’m thinking any showers hold off until late in the day or Sunday night.

Monday will be the day that Nate’s remnant low makes its approach. Again given that the upper air support is weakening as it moves northeast we are not overly bullish on the rainfall amounts at this point. But at least it will be something.

NATE RAINS GFS MODEL SUNDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY CLICK TO ANIMATE

nate rain

The GFS model has the most bullish view of the rain for Monday into Tuesday because it shows a much more vigorous system holding on longer than the other models. Again if this is right than rainfalls should be in the 2 to 3 inch rain over much of the area. We can only hope since it is very dry. Here is the latest on Tropical Storm Nate.

..CENTER OF NATE MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL…

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…19.4N 85.3W
ABOUT 125 MI…200 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI…340 KM NNE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…996 MB…29.42 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Pinar del Rio
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Isle of Youth

 

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