NAM Model Backs Off Strongly

NAM Model Backs Off Strongly

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For much of this week I have been taking a stand against this entire event for a whole host of reasons. But the most important reason was the fact that all winter long we have seen numerous instances where models wanted to create vigorous systems to move up the east coast only to result in an entirely different upper air profile.

This event is no different. Since the NAM model and the Euro model have been running pretty close to each other, my suspicion is that the Euro model will be no different this afternoon when it comes out.

NAM Model Backs Off Strongly Surface Maps

nam60 NAM Model Backs Off Strongly nam66 NAM Model Backs Off Strongly

Here are the new nam surface maps for Sunday evening 8pm and Sunday overnight 2am. This is a marked difference from yesterday and last night. Instead of having an intensifying cyclone heading for Nantucket with heavy snows to the coast we have a flatter much less intense system that is faster and already moving away. Why is this the case? The upper air maps show us.

NAM Model Backs Off Strongly UPPER AIR MAPS YESTERDAY VS TODAY

nam72 NAM Model Backs Off Strongly

nam66 NAM Model Backs Off Strongly

The difference between last night’s NAM model run and today’s run 12 hours later is astounding. This is EXACTLY the same thing we have seen with other  systems other than the blizzard. In fact the blizzard was the only instance where it actually played out to the more intense solution. The upper air structure is completely different. Rather than having an intense feature lifting up and around the northern part of the jet stream, the last 2 nam model runs keep the streams completely separate. In fact the southern feature stays completly separate and just moves along and offshore. If this is the case the bulk of any precipitation falls during the day Sunday into Sunday evening and then it is done. At most you might see out of this is a coating to a few inches and maybe only on colder surfaces since the bulk of the precipitation falls during the day on Sunday.

NAM Model Backs Off Strongly NAM TOTAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST

namprecip NAM Model Backs Off Strongly

NAM total precipitation amounts have been cut by more than half with barely a half inch of liquid in places where previously they got more than double or in some cases even triple that amount. Based on this model run I could not go for more than a coating to a few inches…if that!!! My suspicion is that the European will come in and do the same thing. If the upper air structure on this is the same on the Euro model, then this system IS NOT GOING TO BE A BIG DEAL.

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