snow

Major Storm Virginia to NYC to Boston Imminent

Major Storm Virginia to NYC to Boston Imminent

trademark

Major Storm Virginia to NYC to Boston Imminent

BLIZZARD WATCH FOR NYC LONG ISLAND COASTAL CONNECTICUT RHODE ISLAND & SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW ENGLAND INCLUDING WASHINGTON DC BALTIMORE PHILADELPHIA NEW YORK CITY HARTFORD & BOSTON

Overnight weather models have pretty much converged on the major storm moving up the east coast. We have known that for awhile but now we are at the point of fine tuning all the details and for that the jury is still out. The remaining questions in my mind are whether coastal areas in Central and Southern New Jersey mix or change to rain for while before going back to all snow. For Long Island the situation is a bit clearer since I think Long Island stays all snow and even if there were mixing issues it would not make a difference to the final snow totals. 1 foot or more everywhere. I think it is possible that there could be higher amounts than that but Im not good enough to pinpoint exactly where. We are getting a 1 foot plus snowstorm so I think the message is pretty clear.

snow

snow

The GFS and Canadian model above for Tuesday morning are pretty close. The European is about the same just several hours slower. The NAM is slightly to the left of this track (closer to the coast) and trending east. Even the NAM model in its upper air forecast is showing less phasing of the two streams of energy which was part of the NAM’s issue over the last several days.

From here it is a matter of just laying down the final numbers. We still have a few model runs to go but I’m thinking that changes going forward will be a bit more subtle in nature though this winter has been known to produce some wild last minute swings. We’ll see about that soon enough.

 

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