Major Ocean Storm Develops But Impacts Minimal Coast,
Better Weekend Warm Up Next Week
For the first time probably since back in early December we actually have a major storm developing off the Virginia coast but we have absolutely no cold air of consequence to work with here. Also the surface low is already far out to the east. While we do see the “phasing” of the northern and southern parts of the jet stream here, the phasing is occurring to far to the east, making it too late for any major impacts for the Middle Atlantic coast northeast to Southern New England.
The satellite and radar presentations are rather impressive here but again, too far to the east. To the west in Eastern Ohio and Western Pennsylvania southward into West Virginia we are seeing some snow showers setting up in bands moving southeastward. Rain from the ocean storm is pivoting westward into New Jersey and Long Island with some heavier downpours in the mix. This will continue into this evening and the first part of tonight. Some colder air could mix in from the top of the atmosphere downward to the surface. This will likely cause some wet snow to mix in. But here isn’t enough here for anything more.
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This leads us into a a decent weekend with Saturday being the cooler of the two weekend days. We should see sunshine with gusty winds early in the day but the winds should tail off a bit in the afternoon. Highs Saturday will be in the low to mid 40s.
There are absolutely no changes in the outlook for Sunday and for early next week as temperatures will be moving higher rather quickly. Sunday a west to southwest wind with sunshine will take highs to the 50s to near 60 in warm spots.
Sunday and Monday could be a situtation where with enough sunshine temperatures could outperform the current forecasts by at least a few degrees so I think we could see temperatures especially on Monday approach 70 in some places. Sea breezes will be developing along ocean exposed areas which will knock temperatures down in the afternoon and evening. Monday offers a better chance for a sea breeze.
On to Tuesday and beyond and once again there is nothing here which even remotely suggests anything other than wash rinse repeat scenarios all week. Tuesday will bring a cold front and a the likelihood for at least some showers. Highs will be in the 60s.
Once the front passes we have another fast moving system right behind it that will bring some rain Wednesday night or early Thursday. This was a system that the models were showing snow back several or more days ago. Once again the models in the long range are awful. Why it was going to be different this time is beyond me. The trend is your friend and this winter for snow lovers it was and continues to be your enemy. There are no signs of any kind of pattern shift. If anything we may actually see warmer days as we approach the arrival of spring.
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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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