Long Range Cool Wet For First Half of May
Long Range Cool Wet For First Half of May
We have seen occasional days in the month of April where temperatures soared through the 80s. Yesterday was a perfect example of this. However as we head into May we are seeing a rather cool and potentially wet pattern setting up for the next few weeks across the Northeast & Middle Atlantic states. Blocking in the atmosphere is going to be the primary player over the next few weeks. The video above explains blocking and how it works. If you think about it. If you are travelling from point A to point B, a block would force you to take a detour which likely takes you longer to get to your destination. Often times the trip is rather unpleasant. This is what is happening in the atmosphere with the normal flow of the jet stream. Instead of a general west to east motion we are seeing the jet stream being displaced further south of normal.This creates a pathway for colder air from Canada and the North Atlantic to move into the Eastern states. It also opens the door up for a wetter than normal pattern under certain circumstances.
LONG RANGE EUROPEAN UPPER AIR FORECAST FRIDAY MORNING MAY 5TH
This is the upper air forecast from the European model for Friday morning May 5th 2017. Other weather models are about the same and identical in the general profile. The big blocking high sits locked away over Greenland. What this does is it displaces the entire jet stream well to the south of normal. A deep trough is in the west. Ocean storms in the Atlantic lie along 50 degrees north creating a strong westerly jet stream in the Atlantic north of 35 degrees north. In the west in response a strong ridge develops into Western Canada. In the winter this might be screaming major snowstorm for somebody. In May it shouts prolonged and a potentially heavy rain event for the Great Lakes Ohio Valley & the East late this week.
LONG RANGE GFS RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
Early rainfall forecasts are in the 1 to 2 inch rain but this system does have potential to produce more depending on the track and speed of the surface and upper air storms. These are issues we will resolve in the coming days.
EUROPEAN MODEL UPPER AIR THURSDAY MAY 4TH-WEDNESDAY MAY 10TH
Going a little further into the long range into the middle of next week, the block has moved westward into Canada and we still have a strong jet stream presence well south of normal. This would certainly suggest cooler than normal temperatures until mid month with more chances for rain.
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