Parts of Long Island have already seen heavy rain and thunderstorms this morning as a warm front is going by. Now we are setting up for a muggy afternoon with temperatures reaching into the 80s. There could be another round of thunderstorms late today into tonight as a cold front approaches but that will hinge on how much daytime heating occurs. The satellite shows sunshine breaking out to the southwest and if this moves into Long Island this afternoon it will make for a very unstable atmosphere going into this evening.
The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk for severe weather into tonight for Long Island which means that we could see some isolated severe thunderstorms. There is also a 2 percent tornado risk. Remember that the risk is there but it is not a guarantee that storms will develop.
The front will pass and behind it is hot air for Tuesday through at least Thursday. This will be the hottest weather of the summer for Long Island. Sunshine will take highs to the upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday afternoon. We will hold for a small chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm developing. Wednesday will be the hottest day of the week with highs reaching 90 to 95 in much of Nassau and Northwest Suffolk. Even the East End will be very warm with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s.
Thursday will be day 3 of 90 plus for many areas on Long Island. There is a higher chance for late day thunderstorms as another cold front passes. The humidity could ease somewhat Friday into Saturday though temperatures will still be very warm.