Long Island Marginal Severe Weather Risk Rain Wet Snow Wednesday Strong Winds Weekend

Long Island Marginal Severe Weather Risk

Rain Wet Snow Wednesday Strong Winds Weekend

storm free

Long Island Marginal Severe Weather Risk

Rain Wet Snow Wednesday Strong Winds Weekend

Thunderstorms in the spring don’t often make it to Long Island unless there is a strong upper air trough to support them. The south wind off the ocean is a thunderstorm killer thanks to the more stable marine air over a 40 degree ocean. The Storm Prediction Center has Long Island in a marginal risk for severe weather but they may wind up being strong thunderstorms over New Jersey before the move east and weaken. None the less they have a marginal risk indicated for this evening. In the meantime we have a warm front trying to move northward. it was right through Long Island Sound this morning and it will continue north. However while temperatures to the west have reached the 70s, Long Island temperatures will likely stay in the 50s to near 60 thanks to a gusty south wind. Showers and some thunderstorms will approach and move through this evening. For now they remain to the west this afternoon.

SATELLITE

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WEATHER RADAR

storm free

Once the showers and thunderstorms are done we will see improving weather conditions later tonight. Lows will be in the mid 30s. Tuesday will be colder with some sunshine with highs just in the low to middle 40s. Then we turn our attention to a weak storm moving off the Southeast coast and it will push precipitation northward. By Wednesday morning temperatures will be near or a little below freezing and we could see some wet snow developing before daybreak.

Wednesday we will see wet snow. If this were January or February it would be a bit of an easier forecast. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s. Usually I don’t speak about the “warm ground” but this time it may be worth noting. Unless we were to get intensity of an inch an hour or more, any accumulation will be on colder surfaces. Add the sun angle for the time of year and that reduces any accumulation. For now I’m not going to forecast amounts but I think paved surfaces will likely see snow melt during the day. After sunset as the snow winds down and ends, accumulations at that stage would be at a minimum. More on this tomorrow.

Thursday and Friday will be dry and then we turn to Friday night into Saturday. A strong cold front and a developing low will move through Long Island. The low becomes a major storm and the pressure gradient will be extremely tight both ahead and especially behind the front. We will see a windswept rain when the front goes by late Friday night into Saturday morning and then fierce winds from the northwest will howl Saturday afternoon and night. I anticipate Wind Advisories for sure and High Wind Warnings are also a possibility for a good portion of the weekend. It will also turn very cold behind the front that will last for a couple of days into early next week before we see temperatures warm up again.

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Please note that with regards to any severe weather,  tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.