jose

Jose Category 4 Passing Just East of Northern Leewards

Jose Category 4 Passing Just East of Northern Leewards

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Jose Category 4 Passing Just East of Northern Leewards

Jose has weakened somewhat from its peak intensity which was close to category 5 last night. Now a category 4 it has taken a jog northwestward just enough that a direct hit to the Northern Leewards is less likely though the eye is passing very close. Jose should being to pull away northwestward and as the wide satellite view shows it seems like it is being pulled bu the expanding circulation of Irma to the west.

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…JOSE A LITTLE WEAKER BUT STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE…

 

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.8N 60.7W
ABOUT 160 MI…260 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…145 MPH…230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…944 MB…27.88 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has downgraded the Hurricane Warning for
Barbuda and Anguilla to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The government of Antigua has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for
Antigua.

The government of Antigua has downgraded the Tropical Storm Warning
for Antigua to a Tropical Storm Watch.

The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Barbuda and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* British Virgin Islands
* St. Thomas and St. John
* Antigua

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 60.7 West. Jose is moving toward
the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A continued northwest motion
is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track,
the core of Jose will pass close to or just east of the northern
Leeward Islands later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuation in intensity, up or down,
could occur during the next 24 hours. Afterward, gradual weakening
is expected to occur.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter plane was 944 mb (27.88 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within
the tropical storm warning areas by this morning. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the
northeastern Leeward Islands by this morning and in the watch area
in the Virgin Islands by tonight.

RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches in the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Anguilla,
with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Jose is also expected to
produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Virgin
Islands and Dominica. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing
flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
the hurricane warning and tropical storm warning areas. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to continue for a couple
of days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

irma

Longer term the track of Jose is very uncertain. The upper air flow collapses off the east coast leaving Jose in no mans land and possibly looping or stalling out somewhere east of the Bahamas and south of Bermuda. Since we have just seen these westward shifts in the tracks in both the short and long term, that trend could continue here as well. The longer term picture becomes even more uncertain later next week and beyond. Jose might be around for awhile. We will talk more about this later today.

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

 

 

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