Joestradamus Weather Outlook More Blocking

Joestradamus Weather Outlook More Blocking

Joestradamus Weather Outlook More Blocking

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The blocking pattern in the atmosphere remains in full control over the weather in the Northeast United States and shows no signs of breaking down through early next week. This is going to lead to more days with cloudy damp conditions rather than sunshine. The good news is that given that we are now approaching May, at least the nice days will be reasonable temperature wise though on the cool side of normal. The sunny days should see temperatures warm up nicely though nights will be on the chilly side. Of course there is the ocean wind which will impact temperatures along the coast.

Joestradamus Weather Outlook More Blocking

GFS Thursday Surface Map

gfs48 Joestradamus Weather Outlook More Blocking

Joestradamus Weather Outlook More Blocking

GFS Friday Surface Map Friday

gfs60 Joestradamus Weather Outlook More Blocking

The first stretch of deteriorating weather conditions will come later Thursday into Friday as low pressure moves out of the Rockies and Plains. The normal tendency is for these lows to head to our west toward the great lakes with warm ups ahead of cold fronts and some shower and thunderstorm activity. But with the strong block to the north these weather systems will be forced eastward rather than northward. Low pressure will find its way into West Virginia and redevelop along the coast. The onshore flow will be set in place which means lots of low clouds. Rain is indicated for Thursday night into Friday though from the standpoint of total rainfall it isn’t going to be anything to write home about.

JOESTRADAMUS WEATHER OUTLOOK MORE BLOCKING

GFS UPPER AIR FRIDAY

gfs60 Joestradamus Weather Outlook More Blocking

When you look at the upper air pattern there is a kink in the flow with the disturbance that moves east but it is weak. Thanks to the position of the vortex to the north it gets squashed to some degree and the surface low won’t strengthen very much. The rainfall forecast map reflects this. The gfs produces about 1/2 inch of liquid (plus or minus a few tenths) and it cuts off to the north rather sharply.

Joestradamus Weather Outlook More Blocking

GFS Rainfall Forecast

gfsprecip Joestradamus Weather Outlook More Blocking

Now once this moves out on Friday the onshore flow remains intact over the weekend so clearing could be a bit problematic. If more of the high builds south and the block is a little stronger we could dry out to some sunshine on Saturday. However the next weather system coming out from the west will be aiming for the east coast Sunday and Monday.

Joestradamus Weather Outlook More Blocking

GFS Model Monday Surface Map

gfs126 Joestradamus Weather Outlook More Blocking

Joestradamus Weather Outlook More Blocking

GFS Monday Upper Air

gfs132 Joestradamus Weather Outlook More Blocking

Models have been trending further south with this thanks to the vortex to the northeast off Nova Scotia. There looks to be little room for this to lift as far north. If this is the case there is hope for some drying of skies Sunday into Monday rather than another couple of days of damp and dismal weather.

JOESTRADAMUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

GFS MODEL SURFACE MONDAY MAY 2 2016

gfs138 Joestradamus Weather Outlook More Blocking

The flow still remains onshore going into Monday so even if the rain never gets here clouds may wind up being a problem. Overall it is a chilly pattern as we head into the start of May. Nuisance systems and onshore flow will be the theme going forward. That recent 10 day stretch of sunshine doesn’t look to be repeated anytime soon.

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