We have been discussing the weather forecast over the last few days about whether the streak of nice days will continue through next week. Models have been all over the place but I have been keying on the onshore flow that will be setting up and the possibility that moisture especially at lower levels will sweep in from off the ocean. This is all being complicated by low pressure off the southeast coast. Today’s GFS model run has the look that the European had 2 days ago with a long stretched out low that pushes northward offshore but throws moisture back to the west. The European on the other had has flipped to the gfs from 2 days ago which keeps the low offshore oriented southwest northeast, allowing more of the high to the north to build southward and shifting the onshore flow southward into the middle Atlantic state..meaning perhaps no worse than a mix of sun and clouds here for Tuesday and for Wednesday.gfs72The look of the gfs suggests at the very least lots of clouds coming in from the east probably beginning Monday night and lasting at least into Tuesday night. Whether rain gets in remains to be seen however the heaviest rains are well south around a second low center off the North Carolina coast.


The Nam has a different look as it has that more northeast soutwest orientation to the lows in the ocean. The onshore flow coming into New Jersey southwards causes a large area of rain and even some heavy rain to breakout from southernmost Pennsylvania to North Carolina. Im not sure if this is correct as it seems very much overdone. Certainly this look would have some light rain into Southern New Jersey during Monday afternoon!

How to we resolve this? The European is no help because it has a look similar to the NAM however it shows no measurable precip at all anywhere that the NAM does! This is what I feel sure of. Sunday starts with some leftover morning clouds and we go partly to mostly sunny with cooler highs in the mid to upper 70s. I think no matter which model you look at Monday will bring clouds in on a gusty northeast wind especially along the shore with temperatures probably no higher than the low 70s. Clouds will continue on Tuesday…maybe even some spotty light rain or drizzle beginning in some areas later Monday night along coastal areas and then spreading to a few (but not all) inland areas during the night and on Tuesday. Remember we are talking about light rain or drizzle here; not a widespread soaking rain here. These types of situations are always a tough call. If more of that high builds south it could shift the northern extent of clouds further south. The other issue is whether something tropical or subtropical would develop offshore. If that happens it may actually mean better weather here as dry air produced by any circulation would be overhead pulling clouds back southeast! Just more food for thought and more things to watch in an overall dry pattern and another tricky weather forecast.

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