JOESTRADAMUS Warmer Long Range

JOESTRADAMUS Warmer Long Range (Hopefully)?

JOESTRADAMUS Warmer Long Range (Hopefully)?

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JOESTRADAMUS Warmer Long Range (Hopefully)?

LESS BLOCKING MORE PROGRESSION

WARMER LATE MAY?

Whenever I look at the long long range I always get a little nervous because we know how volatile models can get once we push past day 7 on the weather models. And of course after day 10 we have seen flips back and forth many times over the course of any season. That said there appears to be a few things happening that could lead to warmer days as we head toward the last 10 days of the month. However before we get to that we have some issues for next week. Weather models both the GFS and the European have been having a struggle trying with whether the weather systems next week would go to our north or to our south. I’ve been leaning on the idea that a track to the south seems more likely than north. This is because we have seen that tendency over the last several weeks so persistence says to stay that course. Today’s model runs show that this indeed my be the case for next week. Once the coldest of the cold air pulls out Monday night, the next weather system begins its approach.

JOESTRADAMUS Warmer Long Range (Hopefully)?

GFS MODEL TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK

gfs126 JOESTRADAMUS Warmer Long Range

gfs162 JOESTRADAMUS Warmer Long Range

Today’s GFS model and Euro weather model take the next system and track it to our south for Tuesday and Wednesday. This sets up an onshore flow again for a couple of days. That means a cool marine influence with a northeast or east wind and some rain developing for Tuesday. The Euro weather model has on system coming through and done by Wednesday while the GFS model has it in pieces and brings another round of rain for Wednesday. In either case it does not look like a big deal either way and once that is done we should see some improvement for late week and into next weekend.

JOESTRADAMUS Warmer Long Range (Hopefully)?

GFS & EURO UPPER AIR SUNDAY MAY 22

gfs240 JOESTRADAMUS Warmer Long Range euro240 JOESTRADAMUS Warmer Long Range

Beyond that time frame a lot is going to depend on whether the blocking influence is minimized. The GFS is not very promising on this regard though the Euro model is. So the question of warmer weather coming at the end of the month, remains indeed a question.

cfstemps JOESTRADAMUS Warmer Long Range
Climate models for days 11-15 show near normal temperatures which is probably the no brainer bet here since it really doesn’t commit in either direction.

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