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NAM Model HRRR Model
Two slightly different views emerge between the NAM Model & the HRRR Model regarding the first round of thunderstorms for later today. The images below are the NAM model HRRR model at 1pm Friday.
NAM Model HRRR Model 1pm FRIDAY
The two models are not that far apart at this stage of the game with some showers around in the early afternoon but you can see the HRRR model and to some extent the NAM model begin to develop a line in Eastern Pennsylvania. Now we do not have the HRRR model available after 1pm but we do have the NAM model view for 6pm Friday evening.
NAM Model 5pm Friday
The NAM model it seems wants to get aggressive with that line as it moves across New Jersey, New York City and Long Island late Friday afternoon. The NAM model generates 1/2 inch to 1 inch rainfall amounts out of this. Now this seems to me to be a bit overdone given that the dynamics aren’t exactly ideal. The question is whether they hold together as they move east and whether the marine layer is going to be dense enough to weaken storms as they move eastward.
The second front for later Saturday appeared to have the stronger dynamics as of yesterday but when you look at the new NAM model run from overnight for late Saturday afternoon, it seems that the second front looks more like a big yawn.
NAM Model 4pm Saturday
It seemed to me that the second front would have more to work with than the first given the instability and other conditions in the atmosphere are more favorable on Saturday’s storms than today’s. We will see what the storm prediction center’s view on all this is later today.
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