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Joestradamus Warm Next Week Stormy Finish?

Joestradamus Warm Next Week Stormy Finish?

Joestradamus Warm Next Week Stormy Finish?

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

As JOESTRADAMUS looks into the long range for next week 2 things come to the forefront. One is that it will be a rather warm first half of the week. Temperatures are going to average 10 degrees or more above normal which means highs in the 70s. Also other than a shower or two late Sunday night Monday morning it should be dry into Thursday. Long range models all agree on a strong ridge building (again) in the Eastern US with a trough in the west. As shown on the map below for next Tuesday it is a pretty straight forward look.

gfs114 joestradamus

Now JOESTRADAMUS would like to point out that this is the easy part of the forecast.  The difficult part comes at the end of the week as models begin to orchestrate big changes in the overall pattern. This sets up possibilities in the East late in the week. The ridge in the east flattens and moves east. The bigger changes are in the west as a strong low consolidates in the Gulf of Alaska which allows a ridge to build in the west. The result of this is a trough that develops in the middle of the nation that aims to swing eastward.

gfs156 joestradamus

Now as we progress the GFS along everything sharpens up and the trough digs and intensifies (deepens). The result by early Saturday is a rather high energy jet stream pattern which will bring some kind of low up along or just inland of the coast if models are literally correct.

gfs210 joestradamus

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The European intrigued Joestradamus a few days ago because it had would I refer to as “that look”. We are of course in the evolutionary stages of this. The Canadian model for what its worth has a similar idea with the added notion that a tropical storm spins up this weekend in the Bahamas and moves up the east coast late next week ahead of all this. Needless to say the Canadian always wants to spin up every cloud into a hurricane and is being discounted. Aside from that it does follow the GFS along in the development of this stormier pattern. Either way behind all this the long range models have been telegraphing a shot of cold air behind this and that continues to be the case.

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