hurricane

Hurricane Season Done? Not Yet

Hurricane Season Done? Not Yet

Hurricane Season Done? Not Yet

Now that Hurricane Matthew & Hurricane Nicole are gone and we are into mid October, is hurricane season done? That is a logical question. In most years activity after October 15th begins to tail off. However there is every indication on weather models for the last 4 or 5 days that we are not done. It appears to me based on the pattern setting up that there could be another tropical system that could develop later next week.

hurricane

Weather models are all over the place with this idea for later next week. No cold front has penetrated south into the Gulf of Mexico or Florida yet which keeps the tropics pretty much intact and protected from any kind of cooler environment from the north. Secondly is the anticyclonic or high pressure flow across the Southern US which keeps easterlies very active. Add to that several waves coming across from the tropics and you have the seedlings for tropical storms. The question is whether it comes together.

hurricane

Pressures across the Caribbean particularly the Southern Caribbean are very low. This is probably where something might emerge. The late afternoon GFS run shows this along with something that spins up in the Atlantic. Today’s Canadian is its usual aggressive self spinning up everything in its path. It suggests something forms early next week and heads up the east coast!

hurricane gem144

The European on the other hand wants to focus on the Northwest Caribbean and create a tropical storm in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico late next week!

What do we make of all this? Well right now nothing other than watching all this with some interest. Other things going on will make for a more dynamic pattern across the Eastern US late next week at the same time. There is nothing specific we can point to here because solutions are all over the place including the possibility that nothing much happens at all. However it does seem to me that weather models seem to be sensing something is going to happen somewhere. It is probably safe to say that conditions still remain favorable for some sort of tropical development over the next two weeks as activity shifts westward into the more favorable areas for tropical storm formation late in the season. For more on this and what it all may mean, check the latest post from JOESTRADAMUS.

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