Joestradamus July 4 Weekend Weather Outlook

Joestradamus July 4 Weekend Weather Outlook

WEATHER FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT & STALLS SATURDAY SUNDAY MONDAY LOOK GOOD

MAPS COURTESY OF PIVOTAL WEATHER

With next weekend being the a holiday weekend  JOESTRADAMUS though it would be a good time to have a Joestradamus July 4 Weekend Weather Outlook. The overall pattern remains pretty much unchanged. We continue to see an active northern jet stream pattern. As we have pointed out the active northern jet prevents it from getting hot for more than a day or two.  There is no important change in the overall pattern would suggest something different at this point. We have a front coming through here on Tuesday and another one coming through here late Friday.

Joestradamus July 4 Weekend Weather Outlook

GFS JET STREAM SATURDAY JULY 2
gfs144 Joestradamus July 4 Weekend Weather Outlook

Joestradamus July 4 Weekend Weather Outlook

GFS JET STREAM MONDAY JULY 4

gfs168 Joestradamus July 4 Weekend Weather Outlook

The upper air jet stream for next weekend is unusual for early July. Westerly winds in the upper atmosphere are pretty far south of where they might normally be. And there is no sign of any super heat ridge setting up in the east. What we do have is a trough moving through in the northern jet much like the ones we have seen over the past several weeks. I think the one questionable day might be Saturday as the models show the front getting hung up for a bit with some waves along it. However the GFS seems to want to have dry air pushing southward and keeping any precipitation at bay.

Joestradamus July 4 Weekend Weather Outlook

GFS UPPER AIR RELATIVE HUMIDITY SATURDAY JULY 2

gfs150 Joestradamus July 4 Weekend Weather Outlook

This is the upper air 700 millibar forecast map of relative humidity. This is around 10 thousand feet. This is usually a good level to use in figuring out whether the air is dry or moist and whether it might be raining or not. The darker blues would be relative humidity (at that level) of 90 percent or higher so it is usually a pretty good bet that it is raining there. For the Middle Atlantic States from Delaware and Southernmost Pennsylvania Southward into Virginia and Maryland, there could be a threat for severe weather in these areas until the front moves to the south later in the weekend.

The reddish and orange-ish (JOESTRADAMUS has no sense of color) is very dry air and it is beginning to push into the northeast on Saturday. The boundary to the south is close so we will have to watch it. Given the overall pattern lately it has been a good bet against having rain so I would lean in this direction though clouds could be a bit of an issue.

Joestradamus July 4 Weekend Weather Outlook

GFS UPPER AIR RELATIVE HUMIDITY MONDAY JULY 4

gfs168 Joestradamus July 4 Weekend Weather Outlook

But as we move through the weekend and just like with the last several systems, Sunday and Monday look good with lots of sunshine, seasonal or a little below average on the temperatures and comfortable humidity. So at the very least we can say at this point that Sunday and Monday of the holiday weekend (July 3 and 4) look good. July 2 (Saturday) is questionable but leaning optimistic. Friday July 1st is getaway day and that is the day that the front makes its initial approach so there could be some showers and thunderstorms running around at the end of the week. 

Of course this is an early view but for now overall the 4th of July holiday weekend is looking promising especially Sunday and Monday.

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