IRMA HURRICANE WATCH FLORIDA HURRICANE WARNINGS BAHAMAS
IRMA HURRICANE WATCH FLORIDA
HURRICANE WARNINGS BAHAMAS
Hurricane Watch is posted for the Florida Coast from Bonita Beach on the West Coast southward to the Florida Keys and then northeast up the East Coast to Jupiter Inlet which includes all the major cities on the Florida southeast coast including Miami. Irma remains a category 5 hurricane with top winds of 180 mph. The course continues west northwestward and this category 5 buzz saw is closing in on the Southeast Bahamas. The latest recon report shows that while the pressure has risen slightly, winds remain over 137 knots in all quadrants.
With respect to timing the National Hurricane Center has a graphic that shows the timing of the arrivial of tropical storm force winds. This should give you a good idea of the timing of the arrival of Hurricane Irma
Weather models today have been shifting to the west with the forecast tracks. THe hurricane track models are now all just inland of the Florida east coast and are well clustered together. A matter of a few miles will mean everything here regarding whether the eye wall comes inland or remains offshore.
It has been my opinion that the GFS model is the eastern most track and the European is the western most track possibility. the two models are coming closer together with the GFS model now showing Irma touching the East Coast of Florida. The GFS track would bring Irma’s eye very close to Miami Fort Lauderdale as a category 5 storm
The European model paints a slightly different picture and one that I would think could be an even bigger problem. It is west of the GFS model takes Irma’s eye as a category 5 hurricane over the western Florida keys and then takes Irma right up the spine of Florida bisecting the state in half. This would put the eastern side of the state in the right and most dangerous quadrant up and down the entire state, with hurricane force winds even on the western side. Intensity would be slow to lessen with the majority of the circulation over the Atlantic on the east and the Gulf of Mexico on the west.
The European still has a strong category 2 hurricane in Northern Florida Monday morning in the Northern part of the Peninsula.
From this point forward it will basically down to track and perhaps just a matter of miles that could make all the difference in the world. The odds of a category 5 hurricane hitting Florida are growing sharply. Preparations for this should be made knowing this possibility is very real.
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