Hurricane Jose Major Hurricane Category 3 Hurricane Watch Leewards

Hurricane Jose Major Hurricane Category 3 Hurricane Watch Leewards

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Hurricane Jose Major Hurricane Category 3

Hurricane Watch Leewards

An very unusual situation is developing with regards to Hurricane Jose that may lead to dire consequences for the the Northern Leeward Islands. This area was buzz sawed by Hurricane Irma a category 5 storm with 185 mph winds at the time. Many of these islands are cut off from communication. Now we have major Hurricane Jose with winds of 120 mph and conditions favorable for further strengthening. It is as if the people on these islands have been thrown back into the 19th century. With limited or no communication, the second major hurricane in 3 days will pass very close to or possibily over the islands and it is possible that many people won’t know its coming.

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Weather models all make a very close pass to the Northern Leewards as a major hurricane. We can only hope that the forecast track adjusts further east over the next day or two.

irma

Hurricane track models are perilously close to the same islands that got buzz sawed by Irma. Again let’s hope for a shift to the east over the next 2 days.

…JOSE BECOMES 3RD MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2017 ATLANTIC SEASON…

 

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…15.5N 52.4W
ABOUT 590 MI…955 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…120 MPH…195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…966 MB…28.53 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Antigua and Barbuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Anguilla, Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Tropical storm conditions are also possible in St. Martin and Sint
Maarten beginning on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 52.4 West. Jose is moving toward
the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). The hurricane is expected
to continue on this heading with a slight decrease in forward speed
during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Jose is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible
during the next 24 to 36 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area on Saturday, and tropical storm conditions are possible within
the hurricane watch and tropical storm watch areas by Saturday
morning.

RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 6 inches in the Leeward Islands from Dominica to Anguilla.
Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible in the northern
Leeward Islands from Antigua and Barbuda to Anguilla. This rainfall
will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional
life-threatening flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Jose are likely to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands by Saturday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

The latest GFS model does nudge Jose a bit to the east which is good but these models have been too far north and east all season long. Jose’s track and strength will be linked to Irma. The expanding outflow from Irma will eventually cause Jose to weaken..at least we hope so.

 

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

 

 

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