hurricane watch

Hurricane Watch Central Gulf Coast US New Orleans

Hurricane Watch Central Gulf Coast US New Orleans

Hurricane Watch Central Gulf Coast US New Orleans

TROPICAL STORM NATE HEADING NORTHWARD TOWARD GULF OF MEXICO

…NATE’S CENTER ABOUT TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE EASTERN COAST OF
HONDURAS…
…HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
U.S. GULF COAST…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…15.8N 84.7W
ABOUT 95 MI…150 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 355 MI…570 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB…29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Morgan City, Louisiana,
eastward to the Alabama/Florida border, including the northern and
western shores of Lake Pontchartrain.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Morgan City, Louisiana,
eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including metropolitan
New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Mississippi/Alabama
border eastward to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in Florida. A
Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued west of Morgan City to
Intracoastal City, Louisiana.

The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Nicaragua.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Punta Castilla Honduras to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Satellite pictures show that the center of Tropical Storm Nate is emerging into the Northwest Caribbean. This will be a critical time over the next 24 hours. Conditions are favorable for strengthening as Nate will be over the very warm water of the Northwest Caribbean where water temperatures are in the middle to upper 80s. Wind shear is forecast to remain light. The core of Tropical Storm Nate remains intact so the next 24 to 36 hours will determine just how strong a tropical system the Gulf Coast will have to deal with.

storm free

Hurricane model forecasts are all very tightly clustered and didn’t deviate too much from the prior runs. They all have Nate clipping the northeast coast of the Yucatan Peninusla possibly as a minimal hurricane and then continue northward into the Gulf of Mexico where conditions favor further strengthening. Due to the high heat content of the water in the Northwest Caribbean a period of rapid strengthening can not be ruled out.

hurricane watch

Given that the center was over land it is rather impressive that Nate has actually seen convection increasing around the core of the circulation. The NOAA plane there now did find winds of 50-55 knots offshore to the east of the center. This could be an indication that Nate may deepen considerably in the next 24 hours before reaching the Northeast coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

hurricane watch

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was
located close to the coast of eastern Honduras near latitude 15.8
North, longitude 84.7 West. Nate is moving toward the northwest
near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is
expected overnight, with Nate accelerating along that heading
through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will
move offshore the eastern coast of Honduras during the next several
hours, move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday, and
reach the eastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula Friday evening.
Nate will then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico Friday night
and approach the northern Gulf coast Saturday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Nate
is expected to become a hurricane by the time it reaches the
central Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

 

 

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