Hurricane Matthew Moving New GFS Forecast
Hurricane Matthew Moving New GFS Forecast
The latest satellite loop of Hurricane Matthew still shows a formindable hurricane with a well defined eye. The motion has been erratic in the last 24 hours after completing a counterclockwise loop. It has now begun what appears to be a wobbly slow motion to the northwest and we would expect that motion to continue tonight and Sunday. The current intensity is based on satellite estimates since there has not been a reconnaissance aircraft in Hurricane Matthew since early Saturday evening. No doubt an aircraft will be there Sunday so that we can get a true measure of intensity. Highest winds as of the 11pm advisory are 150 mph making this a strong category 4 hurricane.
If you click on the image it will show you the motion from days 5 to 7 in the long range which is for Thursday through Saturday evening. The difference in tonight’s model run from the more recent runs is that the GFS model swings the western trough to the east however the system never phases with the hurricane. The result is an offshore track to the northeast from off the Carolina coast never touching the mainland.
We have seen over the last several days models go in all sorts of directions. First it was out to sea. Then up the the coast, then out to sea, then up the coast, and now out to sea again. I want to see at least several runs or more into Monday for some sort of confirmation. Given the recent model volatility it is hard to trust one model run. We will wait for more runs Sunday and Monday. The key continues to be the strength of the trough in the west and how it interacts with Hurricane Matthew when it reaches the east coast. At least that part of this complex equation remains the same.
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