Hurricane Matthew Latest & Week Ahead Forecast
Hurricane Matthew Latest & Week Ahead Forecast
Hurricane Matthew is moving northwestward this morning and Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft shows that Hurricane Matthew is still a category 4 hurricane with highest winds of 150 mph. The movement overnight seems to be pretty steady and you can see the island of Jamaica lies to the north west with Haiti to the north.
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 800 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016 ...POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 74.3W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Haiti * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Camaguey * Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island * Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Matthew. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 74.3 West. Matthew is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the north tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach southwestern Haiti and Jamaica on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Monday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 947 mb (27.96 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Jamaica and Haiti on Monday, and eastern Cuba Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach Jamaica and Haiti this evening, and eastern Cuba early Monday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by late Tuesday with tropical storm conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic by late Monday. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Matthew is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire through today. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over northern Colombia, northwest Venezuela, and western Jamaica, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet South Coast of Haiti...6 to 9 feet Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet Jamaica...3 to 5 feet Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
We will have more on Hurricane Matthew later this morning with an updated weather video and model analysis
Meanwhile it is another day of gloom around our area with lots of low clouds and some spotty drizzle and fog and temperatures in the 60s. The upper low in the Ohio Valley continues to spin away and inching to the north northeast. It will gradually weaken as will the onshore flow. There could be some improvement on Monday with breaks of sun through the clouds developing and temperatures in the 70s.
Im not very optimistic for sunshine this week as another high builds to the north with an onshore flow setting up. The atmosphere will be setting up for Hurricane Matthew to position itself off the Southeast Coast of the United States. Weather models last night shifted to far offshore and then back to the coast. The European model shifted westward and actually stalls it out for while so that it is still around next Wednesday.
The above are the upper air maps for the latest GFS model and European model runs. They diverge in a big way after Friday with the GFS back to phasing it with the upper system coming out of the Pacific while the European has that trough weak and completely missing Hurricane Matthew which stalls off North Carolina and is still around later next week! We have been saying for days that the strength of the trough coming out of the Pacific is key and will continue to be the key to the forecast going forward. The GFS model puts us inside the 6 day time frame with late Friday night and Saturday being the threat period. The faster Hurricane Matthew gets to the Bahamas, the greater the chance for that upper trough from the Pacific to pick Matthew up and bring up the east coast. More food for thought going forward.
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK VIDEOS
In case you missed them I’ve been previewing the upcoming winter in a series of posts and videos. Here are the first 2. More will be coming along. Links to the latest posts are below.
NEW JERSEY
LONG ISLAND AND NEARBY
WINTER 2016-2017 PART 3 NEW JERSEY
WINTER 2016-2017 PART 1 OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES
WINTER 2016-2017 PART 2 ARCTIC SEA ICE AND SIBERIAN SNOW COVER
FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For Long Island
FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For New Jersey
FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For Hudson Valley
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SNOW FORECASTS
LATEST JOESTRADAMUS ON THE LONG RANGE
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