hurricane matthew

Hurricane Matthew Latest & Week Ahead Forecast

Hurricane Matthew Latest & Week Ahead Forecast

Hurricane Matthew Latest & Week Ahead Forecast

Hurricane Matthew is moving northwestward this morning and Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft shows that Hurricane Matthew is still a category 4 hurricane with highest winds of 150 mph. The movement overnight seems to be pretty steady and you can see the island of Jamaica lies to the north west with Haiti to the north.

HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016

...POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 74.3W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Matthew.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 74.3 West.  Matthew is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).  This general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
north tonight.  On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will
approach southwestern Haiti and Jamaica on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane through Monday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 947 mb (27.96 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Jamaica and Haiti
on Monday, and eastern Cuba Monday night.  Tropical storm conditions
are expected to first reach Jamaica and Haiti this evening, and
eastern Cuba early Monday, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.  Tropical storm conditions are expected along
the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area
by tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by
late Tuesday with tropical storm conditions possible by early
Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the
tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic by late
Monday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 25 inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 40 inches.  Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican
Republic and eastern Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 25 inches.  This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.

Matthew is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to
2 inches over Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire through today.  Matthew is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over
northern Colombia, northwest Venezuela, and western Jamaica, with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...6 to 9 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...3 to 5 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean
coastline of Central America during the next few days.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

We will have more on Hurricane Matthew later this morning with an updated weather video and model analysis

Meanwhile it is another day of gloom around our area with lots of low clouds and some spotty drizzle and fog and temperatures in the 60s. The upper low in the Ohio Valley continues to spin away and inching to the north northeast. It will gradually weaken as will the onshore flow. There could be some improvement on Monday with breaks of sun through the clouds developing and temperatures in the 70s.

storm free

storm free

storm free
storm free

Im not very optimistic for sunshine this week as another high builds to the north with an onshore flow setting up. The atmosphere will be setting up for Hurricane Matthew to position itself off the Southeast Coast of the United States. Weather models last night shifted to far offshore and then back to the coast. The European model shifted westward and actually stalls it out for while so that it is still around next Wednesday.

 

hurricane matthew

hurricane matthew

The above are the upper air maps for the latest GFS model and European model runs. They diverge in a big way after Friday with the GFS back to phasing it with the upper system coming out of the Pacific while the European has that trough weak and completely missing Hurricane Matthew which stalls off North Carolina and is still around later next week! We have been saying for days that the strength of the trough coming out of the Pacific is key and will continue to be the key to the forecast going forward. The GFS model puts us inside the 6 day time frame with late Friday night and Saturday being the threat period. The faster Hurricane Matthew gets to the Bahamas, the greater the chance for that upper trough from the Pacific to pick Matthew up and bring up the east coast. More food for thought going forward.

WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK VIDEOS

In case you missed them I’ve been previewing the upcoming winter in a series of posts and videos. Here are the first 2. More will be coming along. Links to the latest posts are below.

NEW JERSEY

LONG ISLAND AND NEARBY

WINTER 2016-2017 PART 3 NEW JERSEY

WINTER 2016-2017 PART 1 OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES

WINTER 2016-2017 PART 2 ARCTIC SEA ICE AND SIBERIAN SNOW COVER

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For Long Island

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For New Jersey

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For Hudson Valley

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SNOW FORECASTS

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