HURRICANE MATTHEW ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL
Hurricane Matthew Eye Nearing Coast Coming Onshore
Landfall Near Daytona Beach Likely
Winds 130 MPH
Hurricane Matthew Florida Landfall Tonight Latest Radars
HURRICANE MATTHEW ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL
Hurricane Matthew continues to move northwestward. The eye is clearly visible on the Melbourne Radar and the western edge of the eyewall is now about to touch the coast. Landfall should occur during the early morning hours however Hurricane Matthew will take a path along or just inland of the coast. The eye or at least part of the eye of the hurricane will remain partially over water for much of the trip up the coast toward Jacksonville. If it does this then any weakening will be be very slow to occur. Hurricane force winds will occur throughout the track up the Florida East Coast.
BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016 ...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 79.2W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for Florida Bay and the Florida Keys. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * Boca Raton to South Santee River * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton * Anclote River to Suwannee River * North of South Santee River to Surf City A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Englewood to Anclote River Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 79.2 West. Matthew is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Friday, and a turn toward the north expected Friday night or Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will be moving near or over the east coast of the Florida peninsula through Friday night, and near or over the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. However, Matthew is expected to be a category 3 or stronger hurricane as it moves near the coast of Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by the reconnaissance aircraft was 939 mb (27.73 inches). An automated station on the west end of Grand Bahama Island recently reported a pressure of 943.1 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions should diminish over portions of the northwestern Bahamas tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane warning area in Florida during the next several hours and will spread northward within the warning area through Friday. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward in the warning area along the Florida east coast tonight and Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward in the warning area in Georgia and South Carolina Friday night and Saturday with tropical storm conditions expected on Friday. Winds increase rapidly in elevation in a tropical cyclone. Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area in the Carolinas on Friday night and Saturday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including portions of the St. Johns River...7 to 11 ft Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina...4 to 6 ft Boca Raton to Sebastian Inlet, Florida...4 to 6 ft South Santee River, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft Virginia Key to Boca Raton, Florida...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life- threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida east coast, the Georgia coast, and the South Carolina coast from Boca Raton, Florida, to South Santee River, South Carolina. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from north of South Santee River, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, North Carolina. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in the following areas: The northern Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches The Atlantic coast of the United States from Central Florida to eastern North Carolina...6 to 12 inches with isolated totals near 15 inches along the coasts TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible along the east-central Florida coast tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days, and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. Tropical cyclone updates at 1200 AM, 100 AM, 300 AM, and 400 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Hurricane Matthew GFS Model
The GFS model run keeps the hurricane track just offshore bouncing off the coast. It also trended further north which increases the risk to coastal South Carolina as well as the south coast of North Carolina. Apparently the trough coming through the northeast is forecast to be a shade stronger. If this trend continues Hurricane Watches and Warnings will likely be extended northward.
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