Hurricane Joaquin Category 4 Winds: 130 mph 937 MB

Air force recon continues to show Hurricane Joaquin strengthening with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph as it continues to pound the central Bahamas. The eye is well developed on the satellite loop this afternoon and Hurricane Joaquin seems to be moving now more to the west or west northwest. We will wait a few more hours to see if this motion continues. Joaquin could strengthen a little bit more before eye wall replacement cycles take over and we start to see some fluctuations in intensity.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif

Motion appears to me more west right now at least on the last few frames.

 

...JOAQUIN BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...STORM
SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 74.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands,
Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
* The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern
Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bimini
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Remainder of the southeastern Bahamas including the Turks and
Caicos Islands
* Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be complete in the central Bahamas.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/vis-animated.gif

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/vis-animated.gif

Overnight model runs of the model track guidance. You can see how the cluster of models is focused now just offshore with some models still insisting on west tracks but the vast majority are to the east now. This is following the European which has led the way for the last 2 days showing an out to sea track.

spaghettiplots

Later this afternoon I will post a comprehensive summary of the models. The GFS model has trended to the east again toward the European model and we will wait until the European is done to see what the future holds. The eastward shift of other models began last night and at first glance it continued this afternoon.

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