Hurricane Isaias Bahama Bound US East Coast Grows Larger Early Next Week
We are reaching the point now in terms of time where we need to pay attention to the progress of Hurricane Isaias. It is heading for the Bahamas now with 80 mph winds and conditions are favorable for some strengthening. More on Isaias a little later. First off let us make clear that nothing is going to happen through this weekend into Monday. This morning we are seeing some showers that are moving through. Thunderstorms that were around during the early morning hours have passed to the east so what remains appears to be lighter in nature. We do have lots of clouds to start the day and whether it clears or not will decide whether temperatures get out of the 70s today or perhaps with some afternoon sun developing in places inland west and north, highs there will reach into the 80s.
We can see the thunderstorms on the regional radar offshore moving away to the east northeast while showers linger back into Eastern Pennsylvania. Local radars of course are picking up on this and there are a few heavier downpours in the mix. This should all come to an end from west to east this morning to about midday.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
There is a frontal boundary sinking southward and some “slightly” drier air will come overnight and for Saturday. We should bottom in the mid 60s to lower 70s overnight and Saturday brings sunshine with highs in the 80s and the outside chance for a pop up shower or thunderstorm.
Sunday begins the process of preparing the atmosphere for Hurricane Isaias. We are going to basically turn the atmosphere into a tropical environment where dew points rise into the 70s and temperatures will be in the 80s with tropical skies and the risk for scattered showers and thunderstorms. It will have a Florida feel outside on Sunday. Then attention shifts southward to Hurricane Isaias.
Overnight Isaias strengthened to a hurricane with top winds of 80 mph. The hurricane is moving away from the Dominican Republic and it is on to the Bahamas where warnings are up and then from there, a track northward toward the Carolinas. The satellite pictures and loops show this system is developing a small core and will likely get stronger today.
5AM LOCATION…20.9N 73.3W
ABOUT 15 MI…25 KM SSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 385 MI…620 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…990 MB…29.24 INCHES
The National Hurricane Center’s forecast is above with the widening cone as the storm will turn up the East Coast over the weekend but there are large timing issues between the global models. The faster GFS would have Isaias on the North Carolina coast by Monday afternoon with weather conditions deteriorating in the Coastal Mid Atlantic to Southern New England Monday night into Tuesday morning. The European model has the same idea but it is about 12 hours slower. The GFS is also trending toward the slower European model so timing is a big issue here.
Weather models across the board remain consistent on the idea of a deep upper trough developing from the Great Lakes to the Central Gulf Coast which pulls Isaias to the Carolina coastline and then accelerates it northward. Each model run has shown less of an offshore track and more of a coast hugging storm moving up the coast. We should also point out that this storm is coming with a full moon early next week which means serious tidal issues are possible if this verifies.
Hurricane tracking models remain tightly clustered and have shifted to the left (west) and the GFS ensembles have shifted left as well with the European showing a track left of the GFS.
The bigger question becomes strength. Just exactly what will we be dealing with if indeed this moves northward up the coast. Does it come up as a hurricane or does it weaken to a strong tropical storm. A coast hugging track will make for different outcomes for places to the east of the track vs the track to the west. We will continue to search for clues today and Saturday and do not expect to have this all figured out until late in the weekend at the earliest. We have time to figure this all out.
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