HURRICANE HARVEY

Hurricane Harvey Storm Surge Flooding Rains Long Range

Hurricane Harvey Storm Surge Flooding Rains Long Range

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Hurricane Harvey Storm Surge Flooding Rains Long Range

Hurricane Harvey is heading right for the Texas Gulf Coast and the impacts will be huge if weather models are even remotely close to what they are forecasting. A majority of intensity models forecast Harvey to reach at least a Category 3 hurricane or at least a strong Category 2. Some are taking it to category 4. Whether it is a 2 3 or 4, the more important issue is the behavior of Hurricane Harvey once it approaches the coast.

GFS UPPER AIR FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING WEAK UPPER AIR STEERING

 

The jet stream pattern is a worst case scenario for Texas. Harvey is caught in an almost non existent steering environment. The main jet stream is too far north. Highs on either side in the upper atmosphere are basically acting as brick walls and shutting off any upper air flow. The result is a hurricane that either slows to a crawl or comes to a grinding halt just inland or just offshore of the coastline.

HURRICANE HARVEY

 

NAM WIND FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY 2PM CLICK TO ANIMATE

hurricane harvey

 

HURRICANE HARVEY NAM MODEL FRIDAY 8PM-SATURDAY 2PM CLICK TO ANIMATE

hurricane harvey

Take the NAM model for instance. It takes 18 hours for Hurricane Harvey to move inland about 60 miles. This means unrelenting flooding rains and hurricane force winds that will be very slow to subside. The rainfall through just through Sunday evening will be on the order of 12 to 20 inches.

hurricane harvey

Next is the storm surge of 10 ft or more. The new National Hurricane Center interactive storm surge map lets you look at specific spots so you can figure out what the storm surge will be for your particular area. This is the view for Coastal Texas with a link to the actual map so you can zoom in as tight as you like.

hurricane harvey

 

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

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