HRRR Model Showers

HRRR Model Showers

HRRR Model Showers

We have a short threat for some showers Thursday morning. The HRRR model seems to have a fair handle on this. The bulk of any showers will be south of New York City. Areas north and east will see only a few passing showers before dry air comes back in from the north and turns skies partly sunny by mid to late morning.

HRRR Model Showers 5am Thursday

hrrr12 HRRR Model Showers

The area of rain is being caused by a disturbance moving southeast from the Great Lakes to the Middle Atlantic Coast. The HRRR is a little weaker with the rain on the last 2 runs. I also think the rain shown in the lighter green is probably not reaching the ground. By 8am we have most of the rain over New Jersey with less north and east. Im covering for the possibility of a passing shower north and east of NYC. South of NYC there could be some steadier rain until it all pulls out by mid morning.

HRRR Model Showers 8am Thursday

hrrr15 HRRR Model Showers

The air aloft is so dry that it could be argued that the bulk of all this never actually reaches the ground. When you look at the HRRR total precipitation forecast through 8am, it shows little or nothing for much of the area.

HRRR Model Showers Total Rainfall Through 8am Thursday

hrrrprecip HRRR Model Showers

I’m going to continue to go along with the idea that after some passing showers we become partly sunny from north to south. Dry air should dominate on Friday with no worse than partly sunny skies. The weekend looks good for both Saturday and Sunday.

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