HRRR Model NAM Model Friday

HRRR Model NAM Model Friday

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HRRR Model NAM Model Friday

As of the last HRRR model NAM Model run no rain of consequence should be around through midnight unless there is a passing downpour. You can see where the low center is on the map developing off the Delaware coast. From this point the low center will be moving northward and then northwestward on Friday so that core of rain will be lifting northward as the night wears on. Look for a steady rain to sweep in from off the ocean before daybreak.

HRRR Model NAM Model Analysis

HRRR Model Thursday Midnight

hrrr15 HRRR Model NAM Model Analysis NAM FRIDAY MORNING

There is almost a tropical like look to the core of the system (though it is clearly not tropical). There are going to be embedded bans of heavier rain wrapped inside lighter rains. This definitely will have a ocean storm feel to it as it moves inland.

Now lets switch to the NAM model which goes further out in time and it shows a heavy band of rain sweeping westward across New Jersey Friday morning. The rain band pushes all the way west past the Pennsylvania New Jersey border.

HRRR Model NAM Model Analysis

NAM FRIDAY MORNING

nam26 HRRR Model NAM Model Analysis NAM FRIDAY MORNING

The forecast problem will be how much rain falls north and east of New York City. Ocean systems like this can morph and change as it develops so it is possible that the bands of heavy rain could shift more in either direction. The higher terrain to the west will add to the rainfall with some extra added lift.  Now because of a lead system moving away from the coast this afternoon, this system will have less to play with moisture wise. Still it should be enough to produce another round of half to three quarters of an inch of rain in most areas but amounts do tail off as you go north and east into Connecticut and Long Island.

HRRR Model NAM Model Analysis

NAM RAINFALL FORECAST

namrain HRRR Model NAM Model Analysis NAM FRIDAY MORNING


Notice the structure of the rainfall totals and they match up very well with the structure of the upper air storm. Also you can see the moisture that is left well to the east that is completely separate from the upper low itself. Heavier rains also move into Northeastern Pennsylvania based on the track of the surface and upper low.

HRRR Model NAM Model Analysis

NAM FRIDAY UPPER AIR

nam36 HRRR Model NAM Model Analysis NAM FRIDAY MORNING

Now as far as the weekend goes, Saturday will depend on how fast we dry out and how fast this upper low weakens. I think there will be lots of clouds with some breaks or some brightening. There also will be some passing showers. Then a cold front comes through Sunday morning with a few showers. That front cleans house and we see some sun later Sunday and Monday finally will be a nice day with plenty of sunshine and NO RAIN!

 
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