Holiday Weekend Travel Avoid Friday Evening
Holiday Weekend Travel Avoid Friday Evening
The 4th of July Holiday weekend is upon is and given that it falls on a Monday it means a long 3 day weekend and for some the beginning of a long 1 week plus vacation. If you planning to drive anywhere in the Northeast but particularly to upstate New York or West into New Jersey and Pennsylvania, I would advise avoiding the 5pm-10pm time frame. Models are timing a round of thunderstorms with an approaching cold front and there is an increased risk of severe weather per the Storm Prediction Center.
Holiday Weekend Travel Avoid Friday Evening
Severe Weather Risk Forecast
The Storm Prediction Center has increased the risk area and added an area of slight risk for severe thunderstorms which is higher than the earlier marginal risk. I think that these storms may produce heavy rains and more so than what previous fronts we have seen in the past month. There seems to be some marine tropical moisture that will come into play with this. Between the added traffic and thunderstorms, this time frame could create substantial delays. The weather earlier in the day will be better with just a few odd downpours possible from midday on.
Holiday Weekend Travel Avoid Friday Evening
RAP MODEL 10AM FRIDAY
Holiday Weekend Travel Avoid Friday Evening
HRRR Model 10am Friday
Both the HRRR model and the Rap Model shown above indicate that morning travel will be fine with no issues. There are a few downpours indicated but they are widely scattered and mostly offshore. On the Rap model above you can see the thunderstorms back through Ohio at mid morning. Commencing travel by midday or early afternoon should be fine.
Holiday Weekend Travel Avoid Friday Evening
GFS SURFACE DEW POINTS 8PM FRIDAY
The GFS model shows the lower atmosphere getting juiced up as dew points rise to the upper 60s and low 70s which is a severe weather indicator. Once the front passes you can see the very dry air behind it in the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes and that is the air that will be with us right through Monday! Be cautious and travel safely. Weather conditions will improve from west to east overnight Friday and sunshine will be back for Saturday morning.
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