Heavy Rain Possibility For Friday

Heavy Rain Possibility For Friday

Heavy Rain Possibility For Friday

HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY

MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE

HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITY

Severe Weather Threat Friday

We earlier posted about the marginal risk for severe weather late Friday and Friday night as a cold front will be moving through. What I think makes this frontal approach a little different than the others is that there is going to be an injection of tropical moisture into the mix. That I think leads to the possibility that some of these thunderstorms could produce some locally heavy rains. So I’m taking a shot in my forecast and emphasizing that there could be some substantial rain in some places (1-2 inches) in some of these thunderstorms. Not everyone will participate but a larger area than average should see some of this.

Heavy Rain Possibility For Friday

Satellite Loop

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Looking at the satellite loop across the Carolinas and Virginia southward there is a build up of tropical marine air in this area that will be lifted northward tonight and Friday. You will notice that humidity levels on Friday will be higher than we have seen in a while. This should juice up the atmosphere somewhat. We are also getting to the time of year where the marine influence begins to lessen somewhat in terms of being a thunderstorm killer. This could be a help to Long Island which is a thunderstorm graveyard through the spring. A sampling of water temperatures around the area show they have warmed to 70 or better at buoys just offshore.

STATION/POSITION TIME  SKY/WX   TEMP    WIND        PRES    VSBY  WAVE
                                AIR SEA DIR/SP/G                  HT/PER
                 (UTC)          (F)     (DEG/KT/KT) (MB)    (MI)  (FT/S)
NY HARB ENTRANCE 1650            72 72  210/  6/  8 1016.7          2/ 8
20S FIRE ISLAND  1650            71 71  270/  6/  6 1016.6          3/ 8
GREAT SOUTH BAY  1715            74 78  230/ 12/ 14   N/A
23 SSW MONTAUK P 1650            71 72  230/  4/  4 1016.7          3/ 8
15 E BARNEGAT LI 1722               74                N/A           3/ 8
HUDSON CANYON    1750            71 71              1016.8          3/ 7
KINGS POINT      1700            77 72              1016.2
EXECUTION ROCKS  NOT AVBL
CENTRAL LI SOUND 1700            72     230/  8/ 10   N/A           1
EASTERN LI SOUND 1700            68 63  240/  8/ 12   N/A
ROBBINS REEF     1700            75     160/ 11/ 12 1015.8
$$

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Nothing is showing up on the regional radar at the moment but as we go through the night we should start to see some activity pop up. We will keep a close eye on this.

Heavy Rain Possibility For Friday GFS Rainfall Forecast

gfsprecip

Heavy Rain Possibility For Friday NAM Rainfall Forecast

namprecip

Models of course have their own idea. The NAM model did well with the thunderstorms the other day and it stripes a 2 to 3 inch rainfall zone in the Hudson Valley and Northwest Connecticut. The Gfs model has a slightly different picture of all this. Models are going to change and in situations like this the only thing a forecaster can do is point out the possibility and then let the rain fall or the chips fall where they may. Either way the 4th of July holiday weekend continues to look very good with sunshine and low humidity right into Monday.

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