heavy rain

Heavy Rain 1-2 Inches Tuesday, Patchy Rain Into Tonight

Heavy Rain 1-2 Inches Tuesday, Patchy Rain Into Tonight

 

Heavy Rain 1-2 Inches Tuesday, Patchy Rain Into Tonight

Low pressure both at the surface and aloft is producing heavy rains today across much of the Southeastern US with flooding occuring of parts of Eastern South Carolina. Judging from the satellite loop the upper air system is not making much northward progress. Some of the lead rain from last night has been weakening as it moves northward and the local radars below show some patchy rain approaching NYC Long Island and Northern New Jersey at the moment. We suspect that the rain will be patchy in nature today and for the first part of tonight as the HRRR model indicates.

HRRR MODEL RAINS TONIGHT CLICK TO ANIMATE

heavy rain

During the day Tuesday is when the heaviest rains fall. The rain will be moving into Southern & Central New Jersey and Southeastern Pennsylvania during the morning hours and reach NYC around 10 or 11am and then continue for the afternoon and evening

HEAVY RAIN NAM MODEL 10AM-4PM TUESDAY CLICK TO ANIMATE

heavy rain

If this plays out according to plan 1 to 2 inches of rain will be common place and there could be a few thunderstorms in the mix as well as tropical air surges up the coast. A southeast to east wind will keep temperatures just into the 50s on Tuesday.

SATELLITE LOOP

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REGIONAL RADAR

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LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY

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LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
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You can see the blotchy rain bands on the local radars this afternoon. The solid rain on the regional radar above remains to the south in Virginia and North Carolina but it is making slow northward progress. As far as rainfall amounts are concerned, the GFS is the most conservative with .50 to 1.25 inches while the Canadian model goes crazy with 2 to 4 inches or more everywhere. The NAM model splits the difference to a large degree.

HEAVY RAIN NAM RAINFALL FORECAST

heavy rain

By Wednesday low pressure will be northeast of us so look for leftover clouds and temperatures in the 60s to near 70. Some breaks of sun are possible and so is a passing leftover shower. Thursday will be warmer with some sunshine and highs will reach the 70s. Friday looks warm too with highs in the 70s to near 80 along with the chance for a late shower or thunderstorm. The weekend is going to hinge on what a cold front does as it gets hung up pretty much right overhead. South of that front it will be in the 80s while north of it in the 60s. More on the longer range later today.

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