Harvey Rains Arrive Saturday Night Hurricane Irma Update

Harvey Rains Arrive Saturday Night

Labor Day Warm Sunny

Hurricane Irma Update

Harvey conitnues to spin away as a remnant low in the lower Ohio Valley and still has a well defined circulation as evident on the satellite loop. The clouds from Harvey are close by but there is also high pressure to the north which is slowing the northeast progress. This should keep us clear for tonight and it will be a chilly night with some spots approaching record lows in the 40s. Warmer urban centers and along the immediate coast it will be in the lower 50s. The question for Saturday is whether the clouds can push northward fighting that high. I think that clouds may succeed at times especially as you head south of NYC toward southern New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Rain in those areas will be very close by but it should resist the push northward. Depending on clouds highs will just be in the upper 60s to lower 70

SATELLITE LOOP

REGIONAL RADAR

LOCAL RADAR NYC

Saturday night into Sunday morning rain will be moving through on the order of a 1/2 inch to an inch or so. There continues to be debate over whether weather conditions might improve Sunday afternoon. I’m still leaning in that direction. Regardless of whether it improves later Sunday, Monday will be mostly sunny and warm. Labor day will be perfect for one last summer grill or a trip to the local beaches.

HURRICANE IRMA TURNING TO THE WEST

Latest satellite loops show the eye of Hurricane Irma remains well defined. Irma looks like it is turning to the west now, perhaps a bit faster than weather models were showing. We continue to emphasize that the forecast of a west to west southwest motion is important because the further south it gets, the greater the threat for the Leeward Islands next week and other areas in the long range. The range of uncertainty remains wide and nothing is going to be resolved on at least the middle of next week, Irma is over colder water at the moment which will limit strengthening but by Sunday it will be over 85 degree water which will create conditions for gradual strengthening. Irma is likely to be a category 4 hurricane early next week.

…IRMA FORECAST TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR DAYS…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…18.5N 37.8W
ABOUT 1580 MI…2540 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…110 MPH…175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…972 MB…28.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 37.8 West. Irma is moving toward
the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west is
expected by tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fluctuations in strength, up or down, are possible during
the next few days, but Irma is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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None