GFS MODEL

GFS Model Long Range Shows Deep Trough In The East

GFS Model Long Range Shows Deep Trough In The East

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GFS Model Long Range Shows Deep Trough In The East

Over the last 2 months we have seen a rather persistent trough in the Eastern US with a persistent ridge in the west. This has at least prevented extreme heat (95-100 degrees or higher) from happening except for a couple of odd days here and there. Consecutive 90 degree or higher days have been limited to 3 days or so for most areas. At the moment the trough in the East is rather week which has allowed some hot humid weather to take over for a few days. Some troughing is going to flex its muscle a bit next week to bring some relief for a day or two. However the last 2 runs of the GFS and to some extent the European Model are showing signs that the trough may strengthen a bit. Of course we will need to see if this trend carries over through the next 4 or 5 days. Also we just had an upgrade of the GFS completed so let us see if the new upgrade improves the model. The last upgrade seemed to make it worse.

GFS MODEL

Im going to jump to next weekend after we get another warm front cold front combination late next week. This upper air would suggest a fairly decent push of cooler drier air into the Northeast & Middle Atlantic States. It would certainly continue the idea of short bursts of very warm to hot humid air for a day or two before a front pushes through.

GFS MODEL UPPER AIR DAY JULY 31-AUGUST 3 CLICK TO ANIMATE

gfs model

The GFS model holds the upper air storm in Eastern Canada depicted above right through the first week of August. This would create cooler than average conditions in the northeast into the Middle Atlantic States. The upper ridge flies up in the west into Western Canada. We also have a little bit of blocking with higher than average pressures in the North Atlantic holding this flow in place. Also much of the polar regions will be seeing higher than average pressures which displaces the jet stream further south. We have been contending that IF the trough in the east idea continues into August, we will see more robust cooler air masses moving southward and the GFS model would seem to support this idea at least for now. Also the persistence of the ridge in the Western US would lend credence to the idea since the trend is your friend. Breaking down a major ridge like the one in the west would require a lot of work atmospherically so for now it would seem safer to just go with the flow.

As far as the tropics are concerned the Atlantic ridge in suppressed far to the south along and just north of 30 degrees north. This would lend a westerly component to tropical waves in the Atlantic but it would continue the trend we have seen so far of these systems being pretty far to the south. We have also seen rather hostile upper air conditions across the Atlantic Basin thanks to strong upper lows in the higher levels of the atmosphere. There is some hint on models that this could change come early August which would be in line with climatology.

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