Flooding Wind Rain Arrives During Early Morning Hours
Flooding Wind Rain Arrives During Early Morning Hours
It appears that there will be 2 main surges of heavy rains on Thursday. The first will come during the morning commute and moves up through New Jersey and into Long Island around 4am or so as per the HRRR model
FLOODING RAIN WIND HRRR RAIN THURSDAY MORNING
This shot of rain should produce a third to two thirds of an inch of rain as it moves through. Then there will be a short break before the next area of rain develops during the morning over New Jersey and moves northward as per the NAM model.
FLOODING RAIN WIND NAM MODEL THURSDAY 9AM-3PM
The NAM model above is very aggressive with the thunderstorms that develop and produce 2 to 4 inches of rain for much of the area which is double what some of the other models are showing. Given that we have seen relative out performance of reality lately I would certainly not rule out the possibility that rainfall amounts could be higher than the 1 to 2 inches forecast. The saturated ground would mean local small stream, urban, and river flooding is likely. Wind may also be an issue for coastal areas with strong gusty southeast winds as intense low pressure finds its way into Central Pennsylvania.
NAM WIND FORECAST 2PM THURSDAY
As far as weather conditions are concerned this evening we are seeing clouds to the north and overhead and some dry air ahead of the storm to the west and the thunderstorms developing to the south. Weather conditions should be tranquil through at least midnight tonight with no issues.
SATELLITE LOOP
REGIONAL RADAR
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
Rains will be ending from south to north from late afternoon into the evening. There is the possibility of severe weather over New Jersey as per the Storm Prediction Center severe weather risk map and given the dynamics that are present with the strong upper air storm approaching, I would not be surprised to see some severe thunderstorms in the mix from Central New Jersey southward. Friday we will see leftover clouds and leftover passing showers with temperatures in the 50s. The weekend is dry. Saturday will be breezy and a bit chilly with some sunshine and highs in the 50s. A big warm up gets underway on Sunday with sunshine and highs in the 60s. Monday into Wednesday of next week we will see sunshine and temperatures in the 70s in many areas.
For more on the warm up next week check JOESTRADAMUS’s latest post on the long range.
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