Euro Model Shifts Major Storm West
I think at this point we can start to get some sense of where this next event is going. First off there is going to be a major storm developing. It also appears that for the East coast it is going to be primarily a rain event. In fact it might wind up being rain for areas well inland if the European is correct. That model is actually further east than the GFS model which went east on the overnight night and west again on the last run! All of this confusion continues due to multiple shortwaves in the jet stream and each run shows different speeds and strengths. It is still not a completely certainty as the European Ensemble mean is east which tells me that there are a number of members of this ensemble group which are still seeing other things happening. However at this point I have to lean toward the European operational solution.
Euro Model Shifts Major Storm West Euro Model Operational & Ensemble View
Here is the first question I have. Through Tuesday the atmosphere will still be cold enough to support snow. Just like in the last event, a lead low comes out and the question is whether it will still be cold enough as the high pulls out. The earlier precipitation gets here, the better chance for snow. All the models have the lead low. The NAM has it in the fastest which argues for snow here Tuesday afternoon. The NAM got it right in the last event bringing snow in faster into the arctic air. Today’s run shows it. The issue is speed and cold air.
Euro Model Shifts Major Storm West NAM Model Tuesday
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