Cold Sunday Busy Wind Eases Snow Ice Minor System Ahead of Stronger Storm South
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Cold Sunday Busy Wind Eases Snow Ice Minor System Ahead of Stronger Storm South
It is a cold Sunday with a busy wind at least to start the day but the wind should finally ease later this afternoon. We should have a mainly sunny day from Eastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England with nothing more than a few passing clouds. Highs today will reach the low to mid 30s after our lows this morning in the teens and lower 20s. Wind chills which are in the single digits to low teens will improve later today as the winds ease.
SATELLITE
No issues on either regional radar view today as the radars continue to take a break after a long busy week in lake effect land. A little snow is showing up in Northern New England and that snow is moving southwestward around the back side of the block.
The set up for the next storm system begins tonight with some arriving clouds and lows in the 20s. Those clouds will thicken up tomorrow as low pressure moves east across the Lower Ohio Valley. Highs will be in the 30s.
Im going to break this system down in two sections. The first is for Monday night into Tuesday morning. Notice the east west orientation of this system which is the block doing its job of acting like a dead weight. Snow will develop across Maryland and Delaware and spread into South Central and Southeast Pennsylvania to Southern New Jersey in the evening. From this there could be a burst of snow that produces a quick inch or two in some places. A secondary low develops offshore and moves east taking the first burst of precipitation out with it. Snow from the primary spreads northward while areas to the south (Southern Pa, South Jersey south ) turn to light sleet and freezing rain.
Ice accumulation of up to .15 inch accretion is forecast basically in an area south of Route 195 in New Jersey and South of Route 78 in Pennsylvania. On to Tuesday where the dying primary low hangs on to produce snow for areas to the north across Eastern Pennsylvania to the Hudson Valley, Norther New Jersey, Long Island, and into Southwestern New England.
This snow should be on and off Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Trying to forecast how much snow we get out of this is almost impossible. Some places will get a few inches. Some places will see a coating. Some places may not see anything at all. The best approach is to mention the possibility of coating to a few inches in most places and leave it at that.
Wednesday should see some improvement but we have another storm that will be moving east across the Deep South and this low heads for North Carolina. It is going to strengthen into a major ocean storm once it moves offshore of the Virginia coast later Thursday.
The blocking pattern remains strong and it prevents this storm from turning more northward and burying the Coastal Northeast so it becomes a question of how far north can the low get, and how far north does the snow shield get. Right now I would say that the greatest risk for heavy snow accumulation will be across Southern Pennsylvania near the Maryland state line into Delaware southward. The northern extent of the snow could reach Southernmost New England and Long Island for a short time. The impact of this storm might hinge on the final outcome of storm one. For now this is what i feel comfortable with forecast wise. This second storm could break the heavy snow drought for Washington DC and Baltimore.
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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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