Cold May Day Cold May Night

Cold May Day Cold May Night

Cold May Day Cold May Night
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Cold May Day Cold May Night

Frost Warnings NW New Jersey

Freeze Warning NE Pennsylvania

When you look at the temperatures around the area this evening you may wonder whether it is mid May or Mid March or Mid November. It is very chilly out there and in some areas west and north, temperatures didn’t even make it out of the 40s this afternoon.

Cold May Day Cold May Night 6PM Temperatures

temperatures Cold May Day Cold May Night

We have Freeze Warnings up for Northeastern Pennsylvania and in the Catskills while a Frost Warning is up for Northwestern New Jersey. My question for Northwest New Jersey is whether winds will drop off to dead calm overnight to allow for frost to form. That will be the key variable overnight.

Cold May Day Cold May Night

Monday Morning Forecast Lows

monday Cold May Day Cold May Night

Given that temperatures are rather low this evening and lower than indicated earlier, overnight lows will be a few degrees lower so this expands the areas of lows in the upper 30s to near 40. Colder areas will approach or go below 32 by morning but temperatures will jump fast once the sun rises Monday morning.

Cold May Day Cold May Night

Monday Afternoon Forecast Highs


monday Cold May Day Cold May Night

Monday looks like a good day with sunshine and temperatures should recover into the low to mid 60s everywhere although we should be into the 70s on a daily basis this time of year.

Tuesday and Wednesday remains a question. Weather models are all over the place with this. The NAM has two rounds of rain with one Tuesday afternoon and another on Wednesday. The Euro model has no rain Tuesday and a round of rain on Wednesday. The GFS model has no rain until late Tuesday and has some rain Tuesday night into Wednesday morning before it moves out with improving weather conditions Wednesday afternoon. Also the GFS and Euro model differ on the end of the week with the Euro model showing a low along the coast for the weekend while the GFS supresses it and is further south.

GFS MODEL SATURDAY

gfs144 Cold May Day Cold May Night

When we look at the jet stream pattern toward the end of the week, we are still in a split flow. The model differences center on how they handle the southern part of the jet. The Euro model has a stronger south while the GFS has a more dominant north.

GFS MODEL JET STREAM SATURDAY

gfs132 Cold May Day Cold May Night

EURO MODEL SATURDAY JET STREAM

euro144 Cold May Day Cold May Night

These will be the forecast questions that need to be resolved. Which jet stream will be more dominant? Will the southern stream system be stronger than forecast? Either way we don’t have anything that says big storm and we also don’t see anything that screams heavy rains either. May marches on!

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