Cold Dry Week Ahead Coastal Low Develops This Weekend
Cold air came southward and gusty northwest winds overnight and we are certainly feeling it this morning as temperatures bottomed in the teens to lower 20s. Winds are making it feel like it is down in the single digits. At least we will have a decent amount of sunshine today. High pressure is over the Upper Midwest and Plains this morning and it will actually take much of this week for that high to play out so we will be nice and dry probably through Friday. Today and Tuesday will be the coldest days of the week and then temperatures slowly moderate as we move along.
We can give the radars a break for awhile here as there is nothing going on nor will there be for are at least a few days. Even the late effect machine is for the most part shut down. Look for highs today having a tough time getting out of the 20s and then it will be back down to teens to near 20 tonight under a clear sky.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be essentially a wash rinse repeat scenario with sunshine on Tuesday. Highs should reach the upper 20s to some middle 30s. Another cold night follows Tuesday night. Wednesday we will see some sunshine with highs getting back to the low and mid 30s as high pressure begins to settle overhead.
The weather pattern has changed from what we have seen and been in since right before Christmas. The new pattern is a rather interesting one in that the jet stream is now suppressed further to the south. The ridge in the Eastern US is gone and has now built back up in the west. The pattern opens the door for storm tracks that will be further south. Cold air is going to be along the Canadian border and Southeaster Canada looking for opportunities to bleed that cold air southward.
We showed you this jet stream pattern yesterday and the bottom line is that with the two jet stream flows spilt, as long as they remain un-phased (north and south don’t combine) this will favor lows in the southern stream to move more east than north. Weather models have been going this route and coming around slowly to the idea with the European model leading the way here.
The overnight night runs of the other models have a similar idea. The Weather Prediction Center is forecasting between 1.25 and 1.50 inches of liquid precipitation this weekend so at the very least we know they are seeing the potential here for a coastal storm. Of course it is only Monday and lots of questions lie ahead of us to be resolved.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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