Coastal Low Threat For Next Week

Coastal Low Threat For Next Week

We are still watching the possibility of a coastal low threating the Mid Atlantic and Northeast for early next week but as usual models offer no consensus on speed, timing, depth, and location. As usual all the major models are different and it has to do with the 2 split jets and how they interact (or don’t interact) with each other.

The European model has weakened the overall look considerably in the southern split and shows nothing more than a week low offshore that moves out to the east with no issues at all.

euro120 coastal low

The southern system just stays weak and moves right along from west to east and goodbye. The Canadian model is the fastest and winds up with the deepest low of the 3. The southern stream upper low lifts northeastward making it a closer call for rain along the coast.

gem108 coastal low

The GFS of course is slowest of the three models as it splits the flow completely and allows the southern stream to do its own thing. This allows the gfs to lift things further left but it is about a full day slower again.

gfs96 coastal low gfs120 coastal low gfs144 coastal lowOf course this leaves us no closer to resolving this situation today as we were yesterday so we will of course do what most meteorologists do at this point and that is to punt to the next run of models. My sense is that the weaker solutions probably make the most sense given the tendency for ridging to pop up in the east almost on cue and weakening anything that comes eastward. That theory will work until it stops working. Meanwhile in the long long range today, the GFS is at it again showing a colder look from mid month on which we don’t believe at this stage of the game. Which ever model you pick this is a rain event for everyone.

Earlier today in case you missed it JOESTRADAMUS did some long range and winter 2015-2016 commentary so check the JOESTRADAMUS WINTER UPDATE 2015-2016

LONG ISLAND WEATHER FORECAST

SHORT RANGE FORECAST NEW YORK, NEW JERSEY, CONNECTICUT, PENNSYLVANIA

JOESTRADAMUS VIDEO ANALYSIS FROM TUESDAY

JOESTRADAMUS LONG RANGE POST TUESDAY

JOESTRADAMUS LONG RANGE POST FROM MONDAY

LONG ISLAND FORECAST

JOESTRADAMUS WINTER FORECAST 2015-2016



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