Coastal Rain Storm Threat Next Week?
Weather forecast models have been and continue to signal a coastal rain event for early next week and the models seem to have come together in terms of timing. The GFS has caught up to the earlier European and Candian view of a low moving up the coast on Tuesday into Wednesday of next week though we still have issues to work out in terms of track. This will be a rain event since there is no real cold air to speak of anywhere in the east. More on that shortly but first the short range.
A cold front has moved through and that is now gradually taking the tropical moisture feed out to the ast. However we still have a cyclonic flow with an upper low crossing the northeast today and tonight which will mean some clouds around. There should be some sunshine today however with a bit of a breeze and temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s. We should see more sunshine on Friday and fewer clouds with a similar temperature profile. Thursday night will be in the 30s with 20s in cold spots.
No weather issues for the weekend. Sunshine is forecast for both Saturday and Sunday with highs generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s which will be a few degrees above normal.
Now as far as the coastal threat is concerned, there is of course much uncertainty at this point. We have a split flow with an active southern stream and a weather system moving along it. The issue will be whether the northern jet stays far enough north so as not to suppress it to the southeast. The new GFS model shows this idea very well. It would allow just enough room for the coastal low to lift northward along the coast. This is a change from earlier which showed a much slower system and that seemed unrealistic given what was going on in the pattern.
The southern stream system interacts enough with the north here to lift the coastal low along or just offshore. We will be interested to see if the European follows suit with this when it comes out overnight.
The track here would favor the coast with a sharp cutoff in the rain north and northwest. We of course have days to watch this take shape. There is still a very good chance this will wind up going further east so there is confidence in this right now is on the low side. Again no weather issues through the weekend and into Monday.
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