blocking pattern

Blocking Shifting Westward Pattern Change Looms

Blocking Shifting Westward Pattern Change Looms

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Blocking Shifting Westward Pattern Change Looms

Up until now the blocking pattern that has developed across the North Atlantic has not had the impact that some of you may have expected (or wanted judging from Facebook comments). The block as been primarily East based or closer to Eastern Greenland. As a result the cold air has been moving into Europe while here in the Eastern US it is has been dry with occasional shots of cold air followed by brief warm ups. Weather models are now beginning to show that this pattern will be shifting westward and this has serious implications on the weather along the East Coast as we head into the month of December.

BLOCKING PATTERN GFS SUNDAY 11/26/2017

blocking pattern

Here is the GFS model above and you can see the blocking is well to the northeast. This position doesn’t prevent troughs in the East from lifting out as the one moving through Sunday morning will do. We have trough off the West coast with a ridge just inland of the coast. Once that East Coast trough lifts out temperatures will moderate this week to above average. However all the models then begin a wholesale rearrangement of the upper air pattern in the Atlantic as the highest pressures begin to shift westward

GFS JET STREAM PATTERN SATURDAY 12/02/2017

blocking pattern

This shifting westward brings about a major change in the weather pattern in the East making it much more active and potentially stormy. Another big difference in the models is that the trough in the west remains just off the coast rather than inland which creates plenty of room for something to develop in the East.

GFS SURFACE MAP SUNDAY DECEMBER 3 2017

blocking pattern

EUROPEAN MODEL SUNDAY DECEMBER 3 2017

blocking pattern

The European weather model is remarkably similar to the GFS model which gives us confidence that the models are on to something. One thing both models agree on is that there is a genuine lack of cold air which would make this a rain and wind event for the area.

blocking pattern

If the higher than normal pressures in the Northwest Atlantic hold on for the longer term eventually it will get cold enough for snow rather than rain but that is going to take more time.

GFS BLOCKING PATTERN JET STREAM TUESDAY DECEMBER5, 2017

blocking

Looking at Day 10 on the GFS we have a massive blocking upper high in the Northwest Atlantic. The European model also has a similar look to it though the high is somewhat further east for the same time frame. This may turn out to be a rather interesting month of December ahead.

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

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