Big Red Flags On European Model

Big Red Flags On European Model

By now you should have gotten wind of the European model this afternoon. There are big red flags on the European model with regards to a major snowstorm from New York City north and east. Even in areas in Eastern and Southeastern Pennsylvania the cuttoff line has suddenly become very sharp.

Big Red Flags On European Model Snowfall Forecast

eurosnow1 Big Red Flags On European Model

Now this is a big change and a continuation of the southern trend this model has been on for the last 2 days. Why is the model doing this? Take a look at the upper air maps for the European GFS and Canadian side by side and it is actually very simple.

Big Red Flags On European Model Snowfall Forecast

gfs96 Big Red Flags On European Model gem96 Big Red Flags On European Model euro96 Big Red Flags On European Model

The bottom map is the European model with the GFS on top and the Canadian in the middle. Look at the position of the upper air storm on all three models. The European is the furthest south and continues to trend that way. The other models have barely flinched in their more northward track. What the European model is saying is that the upper low can’t lift up northeastward like the others because of the jet stream that is across New England and Southern Canada. It basically says that jet does not allow enough room for the upper low to swing more northeast. The other models show a much weaker northern jet and a much stronger ridge into New England which allows the upper low to track off the Delaware Coast and not the North Carolina coast. This is why the other two models send snow all the way up to central New York State and Central New England. The European completely shuts everyone out north of route 84.

Now we must respect the European model given its overall longer term performance. So we wait to see whether the other models cave to this. Is the European wrong about that northern jet stream and the ridging into New England? Also another question. This past weekend the European model was the first to take that coastal low out to sea during the middle of last week and it was the last to adjust westward.  I want to be careful about this. Certainly the model doing what its doing is a big red flag. So far the afternoon Nam model has not caved but it only goes out to 1am Saturday morning. The new gfs will be out shortly. Lets see if it starts to cave.

 

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