major winter storm threat

Major Winter Storm Threat Increases On GFS

Major Winter Storm Threat Increases On GFS

The new dayside run of the GFS model remains pretty much steadfast and on course with its idea. It would argue for 1 foot plus snows for Southern New England South to Virginia for 2 foot snows around the Washington DC Baltimore area. The model run was in some regards a shade further northeast from the prior run but at the same time colder. I have maintained for days that mixing issues would be minimal and confined to coastal Monmouth & Ocean counties southward and only for a short period of time as the model collapses the cold air rapidly after sunrise Saturday morning. I think this is perfectly reasonable given what it shows. It also generates a generous amount of liquid precipitation for much of New Jersey into Southern New England.

With regards to mixing issues this is the profile of the temperatures at 5000 feet (850mb) which we look at often. The model here on Saturday morning is at its warmest and  I have outlined in red where I think the snow mixing/rain line will be at its furthest north position. After this the cold air collapses into the surface low that is developing out in the ocean. This would make total sense to me.

Major Winter Storm Threat Increases On GFS 850 Temps Saturday 7am

GFS850 Major winter Storm Threat Increases On GFS

The European last night was not that different except that it was a little further south. My overall opinion of this GFS run is that it came in deep and a little further northeast. At some point this low will only get so far north before it begins moving east or east northeast. Let’s see where the European takes us. The NAM model was very similar to the GFS and is also a little north of the European from last night. I don’t want to leave the wrong impression. These models are close to each other. Its that from a forecast standpoint 50 miles could make a huge difference for somebody. At this point a major winter storm is going to happen along the east coast. How it plays out in details, yet to be fully determined.

Side note: A major winter storm threat also means a coastal flooding beach erosion threat and there could be serious coastal flooding and beach erosion from this given that we have a full moon on Saturday. It is not just about snow.

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NYC Weather Cold Dry Through Friday Major winter Storm Threat Increases On GFS

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