Beautiful Wednesday Sunshine Warming Up 80s Friday
Subtropical Storm Development Risk Rises This Weekend
We are on course to enjoy a beautiful day of sunshine across the Northeast and Northern Mid Atlantic states today. After a cold start this morning with some areas experiencing frosts and freezes, we will warm up back into the 60s this afternoon. The satellite picture shows clear skies across all of the Northeast and Midwest. Some high clouds across the Mid Atlantic states will stay to our south. Rain is no where close and the radars are nice and quiet.
Tonight will be a cold night with clear skies and light winds which means radiational cooling conditions. Lows will be in the low 30s in the cold spots away from the warmer urban centers. Warmer urban centers will be in the low to mid 40s. Thursday we see sunshine giving way to arriving clouds as a warm front sets up from Western NY to Southern New England. Highs will reach the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Friday brings warm air on west to southwest winds and some sunshine. This will boost temperatures up to the highest of the spring season so far. We expect highs to reach the mid 70s to lower 80s on Friday. Even coastal areas will avoid the sea breeze for most of the day.
Friday also sees a cold front approaching and moving through Friday night and stalling across the Delmarva Peninsula on Saturday. This sets us up for thunderstorms Friday evening and the Storm Prediction Center has indicated we are at a slight risk for severe weather late Friday.
The front stalling out to our south on Saturday leaves us in a rather precarious position for the weekend. An onshore flow develops on Saturday though I do think we start the day with some sunshine before clouds develop later in the day especially along the coast. I don’t think we will see any rain Saturday. Highs will be in the 60s along the coast and in the 50s right along the immediate shore while highs could reach into the 70s well inland. Then Saturday night the stalled front to the south starts to back northward as a warm front and putting showers in play for later Saturday night and scattered around during the day Sunday. Another cold front nears with showers and thunderstorms Sunday evening into Monday as low pressure moves from the Great Lakes to the east.
Another complication this weekend is low pressure that is forecast to develop off the Florida coast as the forecast satellite loop above shows. Overnight models have shown the developing low to be closer to the coast than in earlier runs though not all models agree with this idea. Development seems likely however given somewhat favorable upper air conditions and the National Hurricane Center rates this a 70 percent chance of developing into a subtropical depression or subtropical storm over the weekend. For now odds favor any system will eventually get kicked out to the east and remain offshore. We will revisit this later today with a special tropical weather post this afternoon.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.