HUMIDITY RISING AS TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT GO NOWHERE
90 DEGREES MONDAY 90-95 TUESDAY WEDNESDAY #BADHAIRWEATHER
COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY
You can already feel the difference outside tonight as the very warm humid air to the west begins to arrive. Some clouds are moving through though no showers are evident on the radars. Dew points are climbing and temperatures are going nowhere. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s as we set the table for 3 or 4 days of 90 plus. The next cold front looks delayed by half a day so Thursday could see temperatures over 90 before the front and some thunderstorms put an end to all this and it cools off Friday and into the Labor Day weekend.
A ridge is going to build in the Eastern US and it will be spending the next 10 days or so flexing back and forth. When it is strong we bake, when it weakens it will allow a cold front to pass through. The ridge seems a bit stronger today on weather models which slows the next front down. No showers or thunderstorms are forecast through Tuesday. Wednesday might see a pop up shower or thunderstorm. Monday’s highs will be in the 90s. Tuesday and Wednesday we are looking at 90 to 95 with the humidity out of control on those days in particular. There isn’t much change in the outlook for the end of the week and the weekend. Thursday we could see some thunderstorms with the frontal passage with highs close to 90. Then Friday we will be cooler with an onshore flow and clouds which will last into the weekend. Some showers are going to be possible Friday through Sunday though by no means will the Labor Day weekend be a washout.
I went back a few days ago to pull this map above which shows the relative humidity in the higher levels of the atmosphere. What stands out is the huge extent of dry air that covers the tropics and subtropics. This is has been one of the reasons why there has been very little development of tropical waves this month. The abundant African dust from the Sahara and strong westerlies across the major development region (a.k.a.) MDR are the other contributing factors.
There are signs however in the long range that suggest that the dry air in the Atlantic diminishes somewhat and that conditions will be come more conducive for development as we approach Labor Day and beyond. The GFS is the least bullish of the models with this idea but the European shows several wave possibilities in the long range. The Canadian model is also rather bullish though it does tend to try to spin up everything. This spell of quiet weather in the tropics has to come to an end sooner or later and we should start to see activity rev up very soon.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.
LATEST JOESTRADAMUS ON THE LONG RANGE