Backdoor Holds Off Slightly, Let The Warm Up Begin!

We are starting the process of warming things up around here for the next few days. This is going to mean two weak weather systems that will be moving across the Northeast. Each one will have clouds and the chance for a shower. The first of these systems comes through tonight and you can see the clouds from that system over the Great Lakes. This goes by to our north and it will be weak. Sunshine will be with us today with just some clouds today and the risk of a passing brief shower. Highs will be into the 50s which is still 10 degrees below average. Then tonight some clouds and a passing shower is all we will see with lows in the 30s to lower 40s.

US SATELLITE

REGIONAL RADAR

We can see some light showers on the radar to the west with much of this aloft so I don’t believe there will be much consequence to this for our area today other than a passing brief shower. Thursday we will see another weather system going by to our north and it will be warming up. Look for some sun and clouds and again the chance for a passing shower. We should be 10 degrees higher Thursday with highs into the 60s though along the coast it will likely be in the 50s.

FRIDAY FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES

SATURDAY FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES

It looks as if the back door cold front will hold off moving through until Saturday evening and the impact of any sea breeze will be confined to immediate coastal areas only both on Friday and on Saturday. In fact for some areas, Friday will actually wind up being the warmest of the two days. Take advantage of the warm weather because Sunday will being in a cool flow of air off the ocean, lots of clouds with some light rain or drizzle for the first part of the day followed b showery rains developing later in the day from west to east. A strong storm heads for the Great Lakes with a trailing cold front so we will see waves of heavy rain and even a few thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday.

GFS RAIN FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY 2PM APRIL 17, 2018

Rainfall from this system will be substantial on the order of 2 to 3 inches in some places as an early GFS estimate. Given the heavy snows and the melting of the past 5 weeks, the ground anything but dry and river and stream levels are running high. Flooding is a possibility from this system as it plays through. Next week looks like another colder than average week with the weather pattern showing a blocky nature to it. We will focus on the long range later today.