Back Door Splits Area In Two Marginal Risk Severe Weather Thursday
The red line on the high temperature map for today (Wednesday) describes the dilemma in forecasting this time of year. The red line marks the approximate position of a back door cold front which is coming to a grinding halt, splitting the area into two pieces. To the south and southwest of the warm front we will see temperatures top out in the 70s in the southern half of New Jersey and Southern Pennsylvania with 80s also possible if there is enough sun. Meanwhile to the north and east of that red line across Northeast New Jersey to the Hudson Valley, Southern New England and Long Island, it is more of a doom and gloom type of day with cloudy skies, some light rain or drizzle, and temperatures in the 50s. Such is life in the season of spring.
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WEATHER RADAR
Showers should not be an issue today and as the warm front moves northward tonight, there might be a passing shower along and north of the frontal boundary. This is going to set us up for a warm day Thursday with some sunshine breaking through the clouds and the 80 degree line. Of course location means everything and it will be cooler along south and east facing shorelines like Coastal New Jersey, Long Island and Southern New England.
The latest and probably last in a series (at least short term) of storm systems running from the Rockies to the Plains heads up into Eastern Canada but this storm tracks much further north than the system from late last week so while there is the risk for severe weather with an approaching cold front late Thursday, it is marginal and isolated severe thunderstorms are possible and not widespread severe weather.
We will probably see some showers and thunderstorms late Thursday into Thursday night as a cold front passes through. The fornt is going to get hung up across the Southeast US and eventually low pressure will develop on the front along the Southeast US coast. Meanwhile high pressure from Canada will come in behind this front and that brings in colder air for Friday into Sunday.
As long as the low off the southeast US Coast stays to the southeast, there should be no issues Friday and the Easter weekend other than high clouds that may sneak northward from time to time. Later Friday into Saturday is the time frame when there might be a little bulge of moisture that brings rain to perhaps Southern New Jersey and points south for a few hours. Otherwise dry air should win out and the low stays suppressed south.
Clouds will give way to some sunshine from north to south Friday though areas in Southern New Jersey and Southern Pennsylvania southward could struggle with the partial clearing idea. Highs Friday will be in the upper 50s to around or just over 60.
Saturday will be the coolest day of the weekend with some sunshine but there will also be some high clouds around especially as you head south. We will watch to see if a little light rain reaches northward to perhaps the Delmarva Peninsula or at worst, Southern New Jersey for a few hours. Highs will be in the 50s. Easter Sunday should be a sunny day with temperatures about where they should be for this time of year, highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Next week has the potentail to be a nice dry week with warmer than average temperatures. Other than the chance a backdoor front can sneak down from Eastern Canada, much of next week will be rain free. No major cold fronts are forecast for the entire week and we probably see sunshine each day. It could very well be the best week of the spring season so far.
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