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Active Spring Pattern Continues Long Range
Winter weather lovers have been lamenting about the current weather pattern. “Oh if this were only the pattern back in January”! Well folks it isn’t. It is far more likely to see a pattern like this in the spring than in the winter. Blocking or at least a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is more likely to appear in the spring time when the polar vortex is dying and being replaced by higher pressures across the Arctic region. This has been going on for a few weeks now and we see the pattern continuing for next week
The upper air jet stream map for Monday as shown on the GFS model shows higher pressures across the polar region and lower pressures across Canada and just south of the Canadian border into the US. This displaces the jet stream south of where it might otherwise be. The result is cool Canadian air masses bleed southward into the Northeast and at times into the Middle Atlantic states. This creates a frontal boundary between the cooler air to the north and warmer air building up across the south. Add a few waves on the frontal boundary and you have a recipe for dreary gloomy weather most of the time with only the occasional day of dry weather and sunshine. Such a break will be here for Monday into Tuesday before another cold front moves through and another high builds in from the north.
Late Tuesday a cold front arrives and moves through and stalls out to our south (again) and here come a series of waves for later next week. How this plays out specifically remains to be seen however we probably could see a shower or two with the front on Tuesday late in the day so at least the first part of Tuesday should be okay with highs into the 70s. Then it is back to an onshore flow and chances for rain for the second half of next week.
The European model has the same idea though it has a stronger high to the north in Eastern Canada. Perhaps this pushes the frontal boundary further south which might alleviate cloud concerns for an extra day for some but the onshore flow strengthens later Wednesday into Thursday and that means more doom and gloom along with some rain. Typically weather models love to break down the primary pattern faster than reality which likely means we will deal with the “curse of the onshore flow” into next weekend before any significant change in the upper air pattern occurs. Patterns like this have been known to last well into May and sometimes into early June before the magical switch is flipped to something resembling drier weather and sunshine. Again we emphasize to enjoy the nice days when they come since they remain few and far between.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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